Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Zach LaVinePoints30
- DeMar DeRozanAssists9
- Nique CliffordRebounds8
Suns- Devin BookerPoints31
- Grayson AllenAssists7
- Mark WilliamsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–120
- Q41.5Dylan Cardwell makes 2-foot dunk (Dennis Schroder assists)116–120
- Q48.5Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 2114–120
- Q48.5Grayson Allen enters the game for Mark Williams114–119
- Q48.5Devin Booker makes free throw 1 of 2114–119
- Q48.5Dylan Cardwell personal foul114–118
- Q410.1Dylan Cardwell makes free throw 2 of 2114–118
- Q410.1Mark Williams enters the game for Grayson Allen113–118
- Q410.1Kings offensive team rebound113–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:31Royce O'Neale makes 26-foot three point jumper (Collin Gillespie assists)SAC 94 – 96 PHX · PHX 51% → 64% +13PHX 51% → 64%+13 pts
- Q42:44Dillon Brooks makes 19-foot pullup jump shotSAC 106 – 110 PHX · PHX 69% → 83% +13PHX 69% → 83%+13 pts
- Q41:17Malik Monk makes 10-foot pullup jump shot (Dennis Schroder assists)SAC 110 – 110 PHX · SAC 25% → 48% +23SAC 25% → 48%+23 pts
- Q41:03Dillon Brooks makes free throw 1 of 3SAC 110 – 111 PHX · PHX 52% → 65% +14PHX 52% → 65%+14 pts
- Q437.7Devin Booker makes 11-foot two point shot (Grayson Allen assists)SAC 111 – 115 PHX · PHX 83% → 97% +14PHX 83% → 97%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -3.5
- ML SAC +145 / PHX -170
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -0.5
- PHX 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.6 pts
- PHX: Elo 51.1%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- PHX -154
- SAC +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 112.5 – 116.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −71 | −83 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +8 Elo | PHX 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 54.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30115.7 | Points scored | 113.618th of 30 |
| 19th of 30115.3 | Points allowed | 116.622nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −3.023rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30114.7 | Offense rating | 114.310th of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.3 | Defense rating | 117.328th of 30 |
| 19th of 3099.9 | Pace | 98.625th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–927th of 30 |
| 14th of 3020–21 | Road vs home | 24–1713th of 30 |
| 10th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15055th of 30 |
| 16th of 301502 | Elo rating | 147319th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−71 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−83 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  SAC |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–46 | 32–50 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 23–30 | 19–25 |
| Underdog | 13–16 | 13–25 |
| Overs–unders | 43–39 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 5–4 PHX in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.
- Apr 13PHX 98 @ SAC 109Picked SAC 86%Hit
- Mar 14SAC 106 @ PHX 122Picked PHX 53%Hit
- Nov 13PHX 104 @ SAC 127Picked SAC 74%Hit
- Nov 10SAC 127 @ PHX 118Picked SAC 51%Hit
- Apr 12PHX 108 @ SAC 107Picked PHX 55%Hit
- Feb 13SAC 125 @ PHX 130Picked PHX 57%Hit
- Jan 16SAC 117 @ PHX 119Picked PHX 53%Hit
- Dec 22PHX 105 @ SAC 120Picked SAC 62%Hit