Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Grayson AllenPoints20
- Grayson AllenAssists5
- Ryan DunnRebounds10
Kings- Jonas ValanciunasPoints22
- Domantas SabonisAssists6
- Domantas SabonisRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–109
- Q413.2Damion Lee makes 14-foot driving floating jump shot98–109
- Q423.1Damion Lee defensive rebound96–109
- Q425.0Doug McDermott misses driving layup96–109
- Q442.2Jalen Bridges makes free throw 2 of 296–109
- Q442.2Jalen Bridges makes free throw 1 of 295–109
- Q442.2Jonas Valanciunas shooting foul94–109
- Q451.2Jalen Bridges defensive rebound94–109
- Q454.1Terence Davis misses 15-foot pullup jump shot94–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:51Collin Gillespie makes 27-foot three pointerPHX 52 – 55 SAC · PHX 11% → 15% +5PHX 11% → 15%+5 pts
- Q39:20Collin Gillespie makes 27-foot three pointer (Grayson Allen assists)PHX 61 – 65 SAC · PHX 10% → 15% +5PHX 10% → 15%+5 pts
- Q38:34Grayson Allen makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ryan Dunn assists)PHX 64 – 67 SAC · PHX 12% → 17% +5PHX 12% → 17%+5 pts
- Q38:14Zach LaVine makes 27-foot three pointerPHX 64 – 70 SAC · SAC 83% → 88% +5SAC 83% → 88%+5 pts
- Q33:35Tyus Jones makes 26-foot three point shot (Ryan Dunn assists)PHX 73 – 78 SAC · PHX 9% → 14% +5PHX 9% → 14%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -15.5
- ML PHX +600 / SAC -1000
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -6
- SAC 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.6 pts
- SAC: Elo 72.8%, market 86.4%
- Fair odds
- SAC -636
- PHX +636 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 103.5 – 119.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −116 | −18 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +171 Elo | SAC 72.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 72.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 72.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 86.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30113.8 | Points scored | 115.89th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.7 | Points allowed | 115.520th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.9 | Margin | +0.316th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.4 | Offense rating | 114.78th of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.3 | Defense rating | 114.324th of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.7 | Pace | 100.019th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 24th of 3012–28 | Road vs home | 19–2121st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−116 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–50 | 36–45 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–25 | 23–29 |
| Underdog | 12–25 | 13–16 |
| Overs–unders | 42–39 | 43–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 4–4 SAC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- Mar 14SAC 106 @ PHX 122Picked PHX 53%Hit
- Nov 13PHX 104 @ SAC 127Picked SAC 74%Hit
- Nov 10SAC 127 @ PHX 118Picked SAC 51%Hit
- Apr 12PHX 108 @ SAC 107Picked PHX 55%Hit
- Feb 13SAC 125 @ PHX 130Picked PHX 57%Hit
- Jan 16SAC 117 @ PHX 119Picked PHX 53%Hit
- Dec 22PHX 105 @ SAC 120Picked SAC 62%Hit
- Dec 8SAC 114 @ PHX 106Picked PHX 52%Miss