Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints35
- Draymond GreenAssists5
- Jonathan KumingaRebounds8
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints26
- Jrue HolidayAssists11
- Donovan ClinganRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–139
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–139
- Q40.0(00:00) [Warriors] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)119–139
- Q411.7shot clock turnover119–139
- Q435.7Gui Santos makes 25-foot three point jumper (Will Richard assists)119–139
- Q436.0Pat Spencer offensive rebound116–139
- Q440.2Yang Hansen blocks Pat Spencer 's 2-foot layup116–139
- Q453.7Rayan Rupert bad pass (Gui Santos steals)116–139
- Q41:07Gui Santos lost ball turnover (Blake Wesley steals)116–139
- Q41:25Kris Murray makes two point shot (Rayan Rupert assists)116–139
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:48Donovan Clingan makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)GS 45 – 51 POR · POR 52% → 60% +8POR 52% → 60%+8 pts
- Q23:40Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)GS 51 – 51 POR · GS 48% → 56% +8GS 48% → 56%+8 pts
- Q22:37Deni Avdija makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)GS 51 – 57 POR · POR 52% → 61% +8POR 52% → 61%+8 pts
- Q39:44Quinten Post makes 22-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)GS 66 – 73 POR · GS 26% → 34% +8GS 26% → 34%+8 pts
- Q38:38Toumani Camara makes 26-foot three point shot (Shaedon Sharpe assists)GS 68 – 78 POR · POR 66% → 75% +8POR 66% → 75%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- GS -2.5
- ML GS -150 / POR +130
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -0.5
- GS 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.0 pts
- GS: Elo 47.9%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- GS -138
- POR +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 115.5 – 113.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +8 | +24 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Damian Lillard −43, Robert Williams III −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +14 Elo | POR 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 53.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30113.8 | Points scored | 110.922nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 113.915th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.3 | Margin | −3.022nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 109.623rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 112.514th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.4 | Pace | 100.716th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 22–1916th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 8th of 301559 | Elo rating | 148219th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+24 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles tendon−43 Elo
- Robert Williams III return to competition reconditioning−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  GS |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 47–47 | 46–36 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–31 | 8–6 |
| Underdog | 18–16 | 38–30 |
| Overs–unders | 47–47 | 41–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 7–0 POR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 7.