Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Aaron GordonPoints50
- Jamal MurrayAssists10
- Nikola JokicRebounds13
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints42
- Draymond GreenAssists8
- Draymond GreenRebounds8
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game131–137
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime131–137
- OT5.1Christian Braun makes tip shot131–137
- OT5.1Christian Braun offensive rebound129–137
- OT6.6Nikola Jokic misses 24-foot three point jumper129–137
- OT18.5Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 2129–137
- OT18.5Stephen Curry makes free throw 1 of 2129–136
- OT18.5Christian Braun personal take foul129–135
- OT19.6Christian Braun personal take foul129–135
- OT20.0Aaron Gordon makes 2-foot driving dunk (Christian Braun assists)129–135
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:24Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three pointerDEN 117 – 117 GS · GS 18% → 50% +32GS 18% → 50%+32 pts
- Q426.0Aaron Gordon makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 120 – 117 GS · DEN 50% → 95% +45DEN 50% → 95%+45 pts
- Q421.9Stephen Curry makes 34-foot three pointer (Draymond Green assists)DEN 120 – 120 GS · GS 4% → 50% +46GS 4% → 50%+46 pts
- OT4:04Stephen Curry makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)DEN 120 – 123 GS · GS 50% → 71% +20GS 50% → 71%+20 pts
- OT2:58Al Horford makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)DEN 125 – 126 GS · GS 34% → 59% +25GS 34% → 59%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- GS -1.5
- ML DEN -105 / GS -115
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -3
- GS 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.7 pts
- GS: Elo 62.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- GS -104
- DEN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 115.5 – 117.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −69 | +6 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +91 Elo | GS 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 62.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.8 | Points scored | 113.817th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 110.58th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.9 | Margin | +3.310th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.8 | Offense rating | 113.014th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 109.77th of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.6 | Pace | 100.418th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 24–1713th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150214th of 30 |
| 7th of 301573 | Elo rating | 15538th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−69 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  DEN |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 46–50 | 47–47 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 28–36 | 29–31 |
| Underdog | 18–14 | 18–16 |
| Overs–unders | 55–41 | 47–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 6–1 GS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.