Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Austin ReavesPoints51
- Austin ReavesAssists9
- Deandre AytonRebounds15
Kings- Zach LaVinePoints32
- Dennis SchroderAssists12
- Domantas SabonisRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–120
- Q41.3Austin Reaves defensive rebound127–120
- Q41.3Dennis Schroder misses 27-foot three point jumper127–120
- Q44.3Kings Full timeout127–120
- Q44.3Kings defensive team rebound127–120
- Q46.0Deandre Ayton misses free throw 2 of 2127–120
- Q46.0Deandre Ayton makes free throw 1 of 2127–120
- Q46.0Russell Westbrook personal foul126–120
- Q46.0Deandre Ayton defensive rebound126–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:59Austin Reaves makes 26-foot three pointerLAL 100 – 101 SAC · LAL 29% → 43% +13LAL 29% → 43%+13 pts
- Q48:28Austin Reaves makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotLAL 103 – 101 SAC · LAL 42% → 57% +15LAL 42% → 57%+15 pts
- Q46:46Austin Reaves makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jake LaRavia assists)LAL 108 – 101 SAC · LAL 69% → 82% +13LAL 69% → 82%+13 pts
- Q46:31Zach LaVine makes 28-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)LAL 108 – 104 SAC · SAC 18% → 31% +13SAC 18% → 31%+13 pts
- Q41:30Zach LaVine makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Dennis Schroder assists)LAL 122 – 119 SAC · SAC 4% → 20% +16SAC 4% → 20%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -2.5
- ML LAL +120 / SAC -140
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -4.5
- SAC 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.9 pts
- SAC: Elo 67.1%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- SAC -128
- LAL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 111.5 – 114.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −157 | −17 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +124 Elo | SAC 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 66.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30113.4 | Points scored | 115.710th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.2 | Points allowed | 115.319th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.516th of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 114.78th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 114.324th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.3 | Pace | 99.919th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 16th of 3019–22 | Road vs home | 20–2121st of 30 |
| 12th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 8th of 301550 | Elo rating | 149817th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−157 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  LAL |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 48–39 | 36–46 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 28–23 | 23–30 |
| Underdog | 20–16 | 13–16 |
| Overs–unders | 43–44 | 43–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 4–4 SAC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.
- Dec 28SAC 122 @ LAL 132Picked SAC 59%Miss
- Dec 21LAL 103 @ SAC 99Picked SAC 60%Miss
- Dec 19LAL 113 @ SAC 100Picked SAC 63%Miss
- Oct 26SAC 127 @ LAL 131Picked LAL 51%Hit
- Mar 13LAL 107 @ SAC 120Picked LAL 58%Miss
- Mar 6SAC 130 @ LAL 120Picked LAL 64%Miss
- Nov 15SAC 125 @ LAL 110Picked SAC 58%Hit
- Oct 29LAL 127 @ SAC 132Picked SAC 73%Hit