Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints31
- Julius RandleAssists6
- Julius RandleRebounds9
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints49
- Austin ReavesAssists11
- Luka DoncicRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–128
- Q49.6shot clock turnover110–128
- Q429.8Jarred Vanderbilt defensive rebound110–128
- Q433.9Johnny Juzang misses 23-foot three point jumper110–128
- Q435.6Johnny Juzang offensive rebound110–128
- Q437.4Joe Ingles misses 27-foot three point jumper110–128
- Q440.8Joan Beringer offensive rebound110–128
- Q445.0Johnny Juzang misses 23-foot three point jumper110–128
- Q41:02Joan Beringer defensive rebound110–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:27Marcus Smart makes 23-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)MIN 61 – 61 LAL · LAL 39% → 48% +8LAL 39% → 48%+8 pts
- Q310:32Julius Randle makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotMIN 68 – 72 LAL · MIN 32% → 40% +9MIN 32% → 40%+9 pts
- Q36:30Julius Randle makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 80 – 84 LAL · MIN 30% → 39% +9MIN 30% → 39%+9 pts
- Q36:13Rui Hachimura makes 23-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)MIN 80 – 87 LAL · LAL 61% → 71% +9LAL 61% → 71%+9 pts
- Q34:15Austin Reaves makes 27-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)MIN 86 – 95 LAL · LAL 69% → 78% +9LAL 69% → 78%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -1.5
- ML MIN -125 / LAL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -1
- MIN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 55.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- LAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 113.5 – 112.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1611 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −24 | −17 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +35 Elo | MIN 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 113.419th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.3 | Points allowed | 112.210th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.0 | Margin | +1.214th of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.5 | Offense rating | 113.912th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 112.717th of 30 |
| 24th of 3098.9 | Pace | 99.321st of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 31–103rd of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301611 | Elo rating | 153311th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  MIN |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 49–48 | 48–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 32–37 | 28–23 |
| Underdog | 17–11 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders | 53–44 | 43–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 9–4 LAL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 13.
- Apr 30MIN 103 @ LAL 96PlayoffsPicked LAL 69%Miss
- Apr 27LAL 113 @ MIN 116PlayoffsPicked MIN 57%Hit
- Apr 25LAL 104 @ MIN 116PlayoffsPicked MIN 61%Hit
- Apr 22MIN 85 @ LAL 94PlayoffsPicked LAL 69%Hit
- Apr 19MIN 117 @ LAL 95PlayoffsPicked LAL 64%Miss
- Feb 27MIN 102 @ LAL 111Picked LAL 67%Hit
- Dec 13LAL 87 @ MIN 97Picked MIN 76%Hit
- Dec 2LAL 80 @ MIN 109Picked MIN 72%Hit