Utah Jazz at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints33
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists10
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds11
Kings- Zach LaVinePoints31
- DeMar DeRozanAssists6
- Domantas SabonisRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–105
- Q41.2Jazz offensive team rebound104–105
- Q41.2Keyonte George misses 21-foot two point shot104–105
- Q46.1Brice Sensabaugh enters the game for Walker Kessler104–105
- Q46.1Keon Ellis enters the game for Malik Monk104–105
- Q46.1Russell Westbrook enters the game for DeMar DeRozan104–105
- Q46.1Jazz Full timeout104–105
- Q46.1Walker Kessler defensive rebound104–105
- Q46.4Domantas Sabonis misses free throw 1 of 1104–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:12Zach LaVine makes 11-foot two point shot (DeMar DeRozan assists)UTAH 100 – 103 SAC · SAC 65% → 85% +20SAC 65% → 85%+20 pts
- Q41:03Keyonte George makes driving layupUTAH 102 – 103 SAC · UTAH 13% → 34% +21UTAH 13% → 34%+21 pts
- Q428.1Lauri Markkanen makes free throw 1 of 2UTAH 103 – 103 SAC · UTAH 28% → 48% +20UTAH 28% → 48%+20 pts
- Q428.1Lauri Markkanen makes free throw 2 of 2UTAH 104 – 103 SAC · UTAH 48% → 69% +20UTAH 48% → 69%+20 pts
- Q46.4Domantas Sabonis makes two point shotUTAH 104 – 105 SAC · SAC 14% → 87% +73SAC 14% → 87%+73 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -6.5
- ML UTAH +190 / SAC -225
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -3
- SAC 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- SAC: Elo 62.7%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- SAC -201
- UTAH +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 114.5 – 121.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1416 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +7 | −18 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +90 Elo | SAC 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 75.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 74.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30111.9 | Points scored | 115.710th of 30 |
| 30th of 30121.2 | Points allowed | 115.319th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.3 | Margin | +0.516th of 30 |
| 24th of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 114.78th of 30 |
| 30th of 30118.0 | Defense rating | 114.324th of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.1 | Pace | 99.919th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 28th of 307–34 | Road vs home | 20–2121st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 25th of 301416 | Elo rating | 149517th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  UTAH |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–40 | 36–46 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 23–30 |
| Underdog | 40–38 | 13–16 |
| Overs–unders | 48–34 | 43–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 0–7 SAC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.