Los Angeles Lakers at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Austin ReavesPoints28
- Austin ReavesAssists16
- Jarred VanderbiltRebounds12
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints33
- Julius RandleAssists6
- Jaden McDanielsRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–115
- Q40.0(00:00) [Lakers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)116–115
- Q41.1Austin Reaves makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot116–115
- Q46.6Donte DiVincenzo enters the game for Bones Hyland114–115
- Q46.6Lakers Full timeout114–115
- Q46.6Rudy Gobert personal foul114–115
- Q410.2Bones Hyland enters the game for Donte DiVincenzo114–115
- Q410.2Lakers Full timeout114–115
- Q410.2Julius Randle makes 2-foot two point shot114–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:05Donte DiVincenzo makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)LAL 112 – 106 MIN · MIN 4% → 14% +9MIN 4% → 14%+9 pts
- Q41:38Jaden McDaniels makes 25-foot three point shot (Julius Randle assists)LAL 114 – 111 MIN · MIN 6% → 23% +17MIN 6% → 23%+17 pts
- Q449.8Jaden McDaniels makes 1-foot dunk (Mike Conley assists)LAL 114 – 113 MIN · MIN 13% → 37% +24MIN 13% → 37%+24 pts
- Q410.2Julius Randle makes 2-foot two point shotLAL 114 – 115 MIN · MIN 20% → 82% +62MIN 20% → 82%+62 pts
- Q41.1Austin Reaves makes 12-foot driving floating jump shotLAL 116 – 115 MIN · LAL <1% → >99% +99LAL <1% → >99%+99 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -7.5
- ML LAL +240 / MIN -290
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5
- MIN 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 69.1%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -253
- LAL +253 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 108.5 – 116.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1584 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −119 | −70 | LAL: Missing Marcus Smart −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +140 Elo | MIN 69.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 68.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 68.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 71.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 114.021st of 30 |
| 16th of 30117.8 | Points allowed | 119.818th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −5.820th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 111.717th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 117.426th of 30 |
| 18th of 30102.7 | Pace | 102.120th of 30 |
| 1st of 291–0 | Road vs home | 1–117th of 30 |
| 7th of 301533 | Opponent Elo | 15534th of 30 |
| 9th of 301552 | Elo rating | 15845th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−119 Elo- Marcus Smart right quad contusion−3 Elo
Timberwolves
−70 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  LAL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 48–39 | 49–48 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 28–23 | 32–37 |
| Underdog | 20–16 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders | 43–44 | 53–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 5–9 MIN in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 14.
- Oct 24MIN 110 @ LAL 128Picked MIN 53%Miss
- Apr 30MIN 103 @ LAL 96PlayoffsPicked LAL 69%Miss
- Apr 27LAL 113 @ MIN 116PlayoffsPicked MIN 57%Hit
- Apr 25LAL 104 @ MIN 116PlayoffsPicked MIN 61%Hit
- Apr 22MIN 85 @ LAL 94PlayoffsPicked LAL 69%Hit
- Apr 19MIN 117 @ LAL 95PlayoffsPicked LAL 64%Miss
- Feb 27MIN 102 @ LAL 111Picked LAL 67%Hit
- Dec 13LAL 87 @ MIN 97Picked MIN 76%Hit