Indiana Pacers at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints33
- Pascal SiakamAssists8
- Pascal SiakamRebounds10
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints31
- Julius RandleAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–114
- Q40.1Jarace Walker makes tip shot110–114
- Q41.0Jarace Walker offensive rebound108–114
- Q42.0Aaron Nesmith misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot108–114
- Q49.3Mike Conley makes free throw 2 of 2108–114
- Q49.3Jaylen Clark enters the game for Naz Reid108–113
- Q49.3Jaden McDaniels enters the game for Joe Ingles108–113
- Q49.3Mike Conley makes free throw 1 of 2108–113
- Q49.3RayJ Dennis personal take foul108–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:32RayJ Dennis makes 25-foot three point shot (Jarace Walker assists)IND 71 – 69 MIN · IND 27% → 37% +9IND 27% → 37%+9 pts
- Q34:32RayJ Dennis makes 26-foot three pointerIND 74 – 72 MIN · IND 28% → 37% +10IND 28% → 37%+10 pts
- Q34:02Donte DiVincenzo makes 27-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)IND 74 – 75 MIN · MIN 62% → 72% +10MIN 62% → 72%+10 pts
- Q41:11Rudy Gobert makes 1-foot dunk (Mike Conley assists)IND 105 – 110 MIN · MIN 87% → 96% +9MIN 87% → 96%+9 pts
- Q442.1Pascal Siakam makes 26-foot three point jumper (RayJ Dennis assists)IND 108 – 110 MIN · IND 1% → 17% +16IND 1% → 17%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -11.5
- ML IND +380 / MIN -550
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5.5
- MIN 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 70.7%, market 80.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -406
- IND +406 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 108.5 – 120.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1594 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −100 | −25 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | MIN crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +153 Elo | MIN 70.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 74.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 74.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 80.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 114.313th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 109.35th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.2 | Margin | +5.04th of 30 |
| 7th of 30114.8 | Offense rating | 114.59th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 109.56th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.2 | Pace | 98.924th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 12th of 3020–20 | Road vs home | 25–1612th of 30 |
| 28th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 7th of 301567 | Elo rating | 15943rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−100 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  IND |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 50–55 | 49–48 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–34 | 32–37 |
| Underdog | 25–21 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders | 56–49 | 53–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 2–2 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.