Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Bennedict MathurinPoints26
- Pascal SiakamAssists6
- Obi ToppinRebounds9
Grizzlies- Cedric CowardPoints27
- Ja MorantAssists8
- Santi AldamaRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–128
- Q42.9shot clock turnover103–128
- Q426.9Tony Bradley makes two point shot (RayJ Dennis assists)103–128
- Q429.9RayJ Dennis defensive rebound101–128
- Q433.9Olivier-Maxence Prosper misses 24-foot three point jumper101–128
- Q451.7Olivier-Maxence Prosper defensive rebound101–128
- Q454.4RayJ Dennis misses 22-foot three point pullup jump shot101–128
- Q458.6James Wiseman offensive rebound101–128
- Q41:01Tony Bradley misses 23-foot three point jumper101–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:48Javon Small makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope assists)IND 14 – 17 MEM · MEM 55% → 62% +7MEM 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q11:48Obi Toppin makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jarace Walker assists)IND 17 – 19 MEM · IND 34% → 41% +7IND 34% → 41%+7 pts
- Q39:40Bennedict Mathurin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ben Sheppard assists)IND 62 – 68 MEM · IND 22% → 29% +7IND 22% → 29%+7 pts
- Q39:14Ben Sheppard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)IND 65 – 68 MEM · IND 29% → 37% +8IND 29% → 37%+8 pts
- Q38:04Cedric Coward makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)IND 65 – 75 MEM · MEM 74% → 81% +7MEM 74% → 81%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -1.5
- ML IND +115 / MEM -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 40%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -3.5
- MEM 36%
- Ratings vs. market
- −19.2 pts
- MEM: Elo 36.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MEM -124
- IND +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 119.5 – 121.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1594 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −90 | −81 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +100 Elo | IND 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 60.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 121.72nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 116.924th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.2 | Margin | +4.95th of 30 |
| 7th of 30114.8 | Offense rating | 115.26th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 110.69th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.2 | Pace | 105.61st of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 12th of 3020–20 | Road vs home | 26–1510th of 30 |
| 29th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301594 | Elo rating | 148918th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−90 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−81 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  IND |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 50–55 | 43–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–34 | 30–22 |
| Underdog | 25–21 | 13–21 |
| Overs–unders | 56–49 | 48–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 2–2 MEM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.