New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints27
- Zion WilliamsonAssists5
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds9
Grizzlies- Ja MorantPoints35
- Jaylen WellsAssists4
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Rebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–128
- Q41.4Ja Morant makes free throw 2 of 2122–128
- Q41.4Olivier-Maxence Prosper enters the game for Cam Spencer122–127
- Q41.4Santi Aldama enters the game for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope122–127
- Q41.4Ja Morant makes free throw 1 of 2122–127
- Q41.4Trey Murphy III personal take foul122–126
- Q45.6Cam Spencer enters the game for Olivier-Maxence Prosper122–126
- Q45.6Grizzlies Full timeout122–126
- Q45.6Zion Williamson out of bounds bad pass turnover122–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:02Saddiq Bey makes 25-foot three point shot (Trey Murphy III assists)NO 111 – 111 MEM · NO 28% → 46% +18NO 28% → 46%+18 pts
- Q44:16Ja Morant makes 1-foot two point shotNO 113 – 113 MEM · MEM 40% → 53% +14MEM 40% → 53%+14 pts
- Q42:41Zion Williamson makes two point shotNO 115 – 115 MEM · NO 31% → 47% +17NO 31% → 47%+17 pts
- Q42:02Ja Morant makes two point shotNO 115 – 118 MEM · MEM 62% → 79% +17MEM 62% → 79%+17 pts
- Q41:49Zion Williamson makes 5-foot two point shotNO 117 – 118 MEM · NO 20% → 37% +18NO 20% → 37%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -3.5
- ML NO +150 / MEM -175
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -2
- MEM 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- MEM: Elo 57.2%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- MEM -159
- NO +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 116.5 – 120.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1403 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +6 | −82 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +51 Elo | MEM 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 61.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30109.8 | Points scored | 121.72nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30119.3 | Points allowed | 116.924th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−9.4 | Margin | +4.95th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.4 | Offense rating | 115.26th of 30 |
| 29th of 30117.7 | Defense rating | 110.69th of 30 |
| 14th of 30100.9 | Pace | 105.61st of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 28th of 307–34 | Road vs home | 26–1510th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 25th of 301403 | Elo rating | 150615th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−82 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  NO |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–48 | 43–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–9 | 30–22 |
| Underdog | 25–39 | 13–21 |
| Overs–unders | 45–37 | 48–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 2–6 MEM in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Mar 9MEM 107 @ NO 104Picked MEM 79%Hit
- Jan 24NO 126 @ MEM 139Picked MEM 78%Hit
- Dec 27MEM 132 @ NO 124Picked MEM 71%Hit
- Nov 29NO 109 @ MEM 120Picked MEM 84%Hit
- Feb 12NO 96 @ MEM 87Picked NO 59%Hit
- Dec 26MEM 116 @ NO 115Picked NO 72%Miss
- Dec 19MEM 115 @ NO 113Picked NO 83%Miss
- Oct 25NO 111 @ MEM 104Picked MEM 55%Miss