Miami Heat at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints24
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Assists6
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Rebounds10
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points19
- Javon SmallAssists8
- Santi AldamaRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game146–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter146–114
- Q412.2Javon Small makes 29-foot three point step back jumpshot146–114
- Q423.4Jahmir Young makes driving layup146–111
- Q441.1Keshad Johnson defensive rebound144–111
- Q444.5Cam Spencer misses 28-foot three point jumper144–111
- Q450.9PJ Hall defensive rebound144–111
- Q454.1Pelle Larsson misses driving floating jump shot144–111
- Q41:04PJ Hall makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cam Spencer assists)144–111
- Q41:16Keshad Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Simone Fontecchio assists)144–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:03Bam Adebayo makes 25-foot three pointer (Davion Mitchell assists)MIA 12 – 10 MEM · MIA 40% → 47% +6MIA 40% → 47%+6 pts
- Q16:45Bam Adebayo makes 25-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)MIA 20 – 16 MEM · MIA 45% → 51% +7MIA 45% → 51%+7 pts
- Q16:09Santi Aldama makes 28-foot three point jumper (Javon Small assists)MIA 20 – 21 MEM · MEM 53% → 60% +7MEM 53% → 60%+7 pts
- Q15:12Bam Adebayo makes 23-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)MIA 25 – 21 MEM · MIA 45% → 52% +7MIA 45% → 52%+7 pts
- Q12:52Dru Smith makes 22-foot three point jumper (Norman Powell assists)MIA 32 – 21 MEM · MIA 61% → 68% +6MIA 61% → 68%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -3.5
- ML MIA +130 / MEM -150
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -0.5
- MEM 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- MEM: Elo 51.4%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- MEM -138
- MIA +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 114.5 – 118.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −7 | −74 | MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +10 Elo | MEM 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 51.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30110.6 | Points scored | 121.72nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.0 | Points allowed | 116.924th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +4.95th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 115.26th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 110.69th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.4 | Pace | 105.61st of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 19th of 3017–23 | Road vs home | 26–1510th of 30 |
| 24th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 21st of 301472 | Elo rating | 151314th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−74 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  MIA |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–47 | 43–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–24 | 30–22 |
| Underdog | 18–23 | 13–21 |
| Overs–unders | 47–39 | 48–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 1–3 MEM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.