Oklahoma City Thunder at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints55
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists5
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds14
Pacers- Bennedict MathurinPoints36
- Pascal SiakamAssists4
- Pascal SiakamRebounds15
Last plays
- 2OT0.0End of Game141–135
- 2OT0.0End of the 2nd Overtime141–135
- 2OT14.8Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound141–135
- 2OT17.8Obi Toppin misses 23-foot three point jumper141–135
- 2OT20.7Pacers Full timeout141–135
- 2OT20.7Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2141–135
- 2OT20.7Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2140–135
- 2OT20.7Jarace Walker personal foul139–135
- 2OT22.5Thunder Full timeout139–135
- 2OT22.5Obi Toppin makes 3-foot two point shot139–135
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46.8Pascal Siakam makes 21-foot pullup jump shotOKC 113 – 113 IND · IND 1% → 49% +47IND 1% → 49%+47 pts
- OT1:18Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 3-foot two point shotOKC 120 – 120 IND · OKC 30% → 54% +24OKC 30% → 54%+24 pts
- OT1:03Pascal Siakam makes 16-foot two point shotOKC 120 – 122 IND · IND 47% → 73% +27IND 47% → 73%+27 pts
- OT27.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 13-foot step back jumpshotOKC 124 – 122 IND · OKC 52% → 87% +35OKC 52% → 87%+35 pts
- OT12.6Bennedict Mathurin makes 3-foot two point shotOKC 124 – 124 IND · IND 5% → 48% +43IND 5% → 48%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -7.5
- ML OKC -290 / IND +240
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -2.5
- OKC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.7 pts
- OKC: Elo 59.9%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- OKC -253
- IND +253 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 119.0 – 111.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1645 | 1600 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −26 | −99 | OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +70 Elo | OKC 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 68.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 67.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 71.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.0 | Points scored | 117.47th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.5 | Points allowed | 115.117th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.5 | Margin | +2.212th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.7 | Offense rating | 114.87th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.4 | Defense rating | 112.615th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.8 | Pace | 101.211th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3032–8 | Road vs home | 29–115th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149029th of 30 |
| 1st of 301645 | Elo rating | 16004th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−99 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  OKC |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 67–39 | 50–55 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 64–38 | 25–34 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 25–21 |
| Overs–unders | 57–49 | 56–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 6–5 IND in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Jun 22IND 91 @ OKC 103PlayoffsPicked OKC 69%Hit
- Jun 19OKC 91 @ IND 108PlayoffsPicked OKC 66%Miss
- Jun 16IND 109 @ OKC 120PlayoffsPicked OKC 74%Hit
- Jun 13OKC 111 @ IND 104PlayoffsPicked OKC 68%Hit
- Jun 11OKC 107 @ IND 116PlayoffsPicked OKC 66%Miss
- Jun 8IND 107 @ OKC 123PlayoffsPicked OKC 81%Hit
- Jun 5IND 111 @ OKC 110PlayoffsPicked OKC 80%Miss
- Mar 29IND 111 @ OKC 132Picked OKC 76%Hit