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Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast

FinalMIN wins series 4-2

Away

Nuggets

2-1

127–114

at

Home

Timberwolves

2-2

DEN 67%MIN 33%

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Target Center · Peacock

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.

MIN favored DEN favored132 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4MIN50%DEN

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Nuggets
Timberwolves

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game127–114
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–114
  • Q412.7Hunter Tyson defensive rebound127–114
  • Q416.4Johnny Juzang misses 11-foot step back jumpshot127–114
  • Q432.0shot clock turnover127–114
  • Q449.9Joan Beringer personal foul127–114
  • Q456.1Terrence Shannon Jr. makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot127–114
  • Q41:02Terrence Shannon Jr. defensive rebound127–112
  • Q41:03Zeke Nnaji misses 24-foot three point jumper127–112
  • Q41:25Zeke Nnaji enters the game for Aaron Gordon127–112

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q36:29Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 76 – 78 MIN · DEN 44% → 54% +10
  2. Q36:03Jamal Murray makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotDEN 79 – 78 MIN · DEN 54% → 64% +10
  3. Q33:45Naz Reid makes 23-foot three point jumper (Terrence Shannon Jr. assists)DEN 86 – 85 MIN · MIN 27% → 36% +10
  4. Q33:30Jamal Murray makes 27-foot three pointerDEN 89 – 85 MIN · DEN 64% → 73% +10
  5. Q33:01Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)DEN 92 – 87 MIN · DEN 67% → 76% +9

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Nuggets 67%

SolidHit
DEN 67%MIN 33%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.

Market
DEN -6.5
ML DEN -230 / MIN +195
Pre-line forecast
DEN 51%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MIN -0.5
DEN 48%
Ratings vs. market
−19.3 pts
DEN: Elo 48.0%, market 67.3%
Fair odds
DEN -206
MIN +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
DEN 118.0 – 111.5 MIN
Posted spread, posted total 229.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDENMINWhy
Team rating15741597Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Rest—−40MIN on the second night of a back-to-back
Lineups−56−73DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Travel−12—DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag
Elo ratingsMIN +14 EloMIN 52.0%
Market-implied ratingsDEN 51.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDEN 50.8%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastDEN 67.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves compared, with each team's league rank
DENStatMIN
3rd of 30120.8Points scored114.313th of 30
25th of 30116.9Points allowed109.35th of 30
9th of 30+3.9Margin+5.04th of 30
3rd of 30117.8Offense rating114.59th of 30
21st of 30114.0Defense rating109.56th of 30
7th of 30101.6Pace98.924th of 30
15th of 305–5Last 108–22nd of 30
4th of 3024–17Road vs home25–1612th of 30
16th of 301500Opponent Elo150213th of 30
5th of 301574Elo rating15974th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Nuggets

−56 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Timberwolves

−73 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

NuggetsTimberwolves
15001550160016501700NovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

Last season (2024-25)DENMIN
Against the spread46–5049–48
Last 107–36–4
Favorite28–3632–37
Underdog18–1417–11
Overs–unders55–4153–44
Overs–unders, last 107–36–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DEN 5–10 MIN in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 15.