Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints31
- Devin BookerAssists7
- Ryan DunnRebounds7
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints23
- Nikola JokicAssists15
- Nikola JokicRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–133
- Q40.0End of Game111–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–133
- Q416.7Rasheer Fleming makes 25-foot jump bank shot (Jordan Goodwin assists)111–133
- Q427.2Zeke Nnaji makes free throw 2 of 2108–133
- Q427.2Zeke Nnaji makes free throw 1 of 2108–132
- Q427.2Khaman Maluach shooting foul108–131
- Q432.4Jordan Goodwin lost ball turnover (Spencer Jones steals)108–131
- Q439.2Julian Strawther makes 1-foot two point shot108–131
- Q448.2Khaman Maluach makes free throw 2 of 2108–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:22Grayson Allen makes 25-foot three pointer (Devin Booker assists)PHX 3 – 3 DEN · PHX 11% → 15% +3PHX 11% → 15%+3 pts
- Q11:29Devin Booker makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Khaman Maluach assists)PHX 22 – 24 DEN · PHX 11% → 15% +4PHX 11% → 15%+4 pts
- Q112.2Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)PHX 26 – 31 DEN · DEN 85% → 89% +4DEN 85% → 89%+4 pts
- Q11.0Jamal Murray makes 55-foot three pointer (Bruce Brown assists)PHX 28 – 34 DEN · DEN 86% → 90% +4DEN 86% → 90%+4 pts
- Q29:38Collin Gillespie makes 25-foot three pointerPHX 36 – 40 DEN · PHX 9% → 13% +4PHX 9% → 13%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -12.5
- ML PHX +550 / DEN -900
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -7.5
- DEN 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- DEN: Elo 77.0%, market 85.4%
- Fair odds
- DEN -585
- PHX +585 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 110.5 – 123.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −97 | −62 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | PHX crossed 1 time zone and DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +210 Elo | DEN 77.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 77.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 77.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 85.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.6 | Points scored | 120.83rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.6 | Points allowed | 116.925th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.0 | Margin | +3.99th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.3 | Offense rating | 117.83rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.3 | Defense rating | 114.021st of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.6 | Pace | 101.67th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 24th of 3012–29 | Road vs home | 26–1510th of 30 |
| 5th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 21st of 301470 | Elo rating | 15686th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−97 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
−62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  PHX |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–50 | 46–50 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–25 | 28–36 |
| Underdog | 13–25 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders | 42–40 | 55–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 3–4 DEN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.