Memphis Grizzlies at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Ja MorantPoints28
- Ja MorantAssists7
- Santi AldamaRebounds10
Suns- Devin BookerPoints32
- Royce O'NealeAssists5
- Mark WilliamsRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–113
- Q41.9Ja Morant defensive rebound114–113
- Q41.9Devin Booker misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot114–113
- Q47.6Ja Morant makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot (Santi Aldama assists)114–113
- Q414.0Cedric Coward defensive rebound112–113
- Q417.1Devin Booker misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot112–113
- Q439.1Collin Gillespie defensive rebound112–113
- Q441.9Ja Morant misses 9-foot two point shot112–113
- Q451.4Grizzlies Full timeout112–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:23Devin Booker makes 12-foot pullup jump shotMEM 108 – 108 PHX · PHX 31% → 49% +18PHX 31% → 49%+18 pts
- Q41:50Cedric Coward makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)MEM 112 – 108 PHX · MEM 61% → 86% +25MEM 61% → 86%+25 pts
- Q41:30Devin Booker makes 27-foot three point jumper (Collin Gillespie assists)MEM 112 – 111 PHX · PHX 12% → 38% +26PHX 12% → 38%+26 pts
- Q451.4Mark Williams makes 3-foot dunk (Collin Gillespie assists)MEM 112 – 113 PHX · PHX 34% → 65% +30PHX 34% → 65%+30 pts
- Q47.6Ja Morant makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot (Santi Aldama assists)MEM 114 – 113 PHX · MEM 16% → 85% +69MEM 16% → 85%+69 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -2.5
- ML MEM -130 / PHX +110
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- MEM 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- MEM: Elo 50.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MEM -119
- PHX +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 122.5 – 120.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −61 | −62 | MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MEM crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MEM +4 Elo | MEM 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 50.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30122.0 | Points scored | 116.817th of 30 |
| 26th of 30125.5 | Points allowed | 129.029th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−3.5 | Margin | −12.328th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.8 | Offense rating | 110.120th of 30 |
| 20th of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 121.729th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30108.3 | Pace | 103.216th of 30 |
| 20th of 290–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
| 12th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150611th of 30 |
| 16th of 301508 | Elo rating | 145821st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−61 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  MEM |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–43 | 32–50 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 30–22 | 19–25 |
| Underdog | 13–21 | 13–25 |
| Overs–unders | 48–38 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 5–2 PHX in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.