Phoenix Suns at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints34
- Collin GillespieAssists13
- Royce O'NealeRebounds13
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints51
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists10
- Lauri MarkkanenRebounds14
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game134–138
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime134–138
- OT0.5Suns offensive team rebound134–138
- OT0.5Devin Booker misses 28-foot three point jumper134–138
- OT1.9Collin Gillespie enters the game for Nick Richards134–138
- OT1.9Grayson Allen enters the game for Oso Ighodaro134–138
- OT1.9Suns Full timeout134–138
- OT1.9Lauri Markkanen makes free throw 2 of 2134–138
- OT1.9Nick Richards enters the game for Collin Gillespie134–137
- OT1.9Oso Ighodaro enters the game for Grayson Allen134–137
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41.9Mark Williams makes tip shotPHX 124 – 124 UTAH · PHX <1% → 50% +50PHX <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT4:38Walter Clayton Jr. makes 28-foot three point jumper (Lauri Markkanen assists)PHX 124 – 127 UTAH · UTAH 51% → 70% +19UTAH 51% → 70%+19 pts
- OT3:31Lauri Markkanen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)PHX 125 – 130 UTAH · UTAH 66% → 84% +18UTAH 66% → 84%+18 pts
- OT2:49Grayson Allen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Collin Gillespie assists)PHX 130 – 130 UTAH · PHX 25% → 49% +24PHX 25% → 49%+24 pts
- OT40.2Keyonte George makes 9-foot two point shotPHX 134 – 136 UTAH · UTAH 50% → 81% +31UTAH 50% → 81%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jazz 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH -1.5
- ML PHX +105 / UTAH -125
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -2
- UTAH 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- UTAH: Elo 57.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -114
- PHX +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 114.5 – 116.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −70 | +10 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | UTAH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +54 Elo | UTAH 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 51.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.6 | Points scored | 111.921st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.6 | Points allowed | 121.230th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.0 | Margin | −9.328th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.3 | Offense rating | 108.924th of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.3 | Defense rating | 118.030th of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.6 | Pace | 102.15th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 1–927th of 30 |
| 24th of 3012–29 | Road vs home | 10–3129th of 30 |
| 4th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15112nd of 30 |
| 21st of 301463 | Elo rating | 141426th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−70 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  PHX |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–50 | 41–40 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–25 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 13–25 | 40–38 |
| Overs–unders | 42–40 | 48–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 8–0 UTAH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- Feb 7UTAH 127 @ PHX 135Picked PHX 71%Hit
- Jan 11UTAH 106 @ PHX 114Picked PHX 83%Hit
- Dec 13PHX 134 @ UTAH 126Picked PHX 70%Hit
- Nov 12PHX 120 @ UTAH 112Picked PHX 64%Hit
- Feb 8UTAH 115 @ PHX 129Picked UTAH 53%Miss
- Nov 19PHX 140 @ UTAH 137Picked PHX 53%Hit
- Nov 17PHX 131 @ UTAH 128Picked PHX 50%Hit
- Oct 28UTAH 104 @ PHX 126Picked PHX 57%Hit