Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Ja MorantPoints23
- Ja MorantAssists9
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Rebounds7
Warriors- Jonathan KumingaPoints25
- Draymond GreenAssists10
- Jonathan KumingaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–131
- Q42.3Cedric Coward defensive rebound118–131
- Q42.3Pat Spencer misses 9-foot two point shot118–131
- Q417.9Gui Santos defensive rebound118–131
- Q421.4Javon Small misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot118–131
- Q427.1Moses Moody traveling118–131
- Q429.8Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes 5-foot dunk (Cam Spencer assists)118–131
- Q432.3Cam Spencer defensive rebound116–131
- Q436.7Will Richard misses 24-foot three point jumper116–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:53Moses Moody makes 27-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)MEM 39 – 39 GS · GS 64% → 71% +7GS 64% → 71%+7 pts
- Q26:16Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Kuminga assists)MEM 49 – 48 GS · GS 60% → 67% +7GS 60% → 67%+7 pts
- Q25:52Gui Santos makes 26-foot three point jumper (Buddy Hield assists)MEM 49 – 51 GS · GS 67% → 74% +7GS 67% → 74%+7 pts
- Q23:05Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jock Landale assists)MEM 57 – 58 GS · MEM 22% → 29% +7MEM 22% → 29%+7 pts
- Q246.6Draymond Green makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)MEM 61 – 63 GS · GS 65% → 73% +8GS 65% → 73%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- GS -8.5
- ML MEM +270 / GS -340
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -4.5
- GS 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- GS: Elo 67.3%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- GS -286
- MEM +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 116.0 – 124.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −62 | 0 | MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +125 Elo | GS 67.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 67.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30123.3 | Points scored | 125.05th of 30 |
| 24th of 30123.7 | Points allowed | 126.326th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.318th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 117.59th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 118.728th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30108.8 | Pace | 102.617th of 30 |
| 21st of 301481 | Opponent Elo | 15476th of 30 |
| 14th of 301515 | Elo rating | 154311th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  MEM |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–43 | 47–47 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 30–22 | 29–31 |
| Underdog | 13–21 | 18–16 |
| Overs–unders | 48–38 | 47–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 2–5 GS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.