Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points20
- Cedric CowardAssists5
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Rebounds9
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints27
- Scottie BarnesAssists8
- Scottie BarnesRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–117
- Q47.4shot clock turnover104–117
- Q421.4Vince Williams Jr. enters the game for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope104–117
- Q421.4Cam Spencer enters the game for Santi Aldama104–117
- Q421.4Raptors offensive team rebound104–117
- Q424.2RJ Barrett misses 26-foot three point jumper104–117
- Q433.7Olivier-Maxence Prosper enters the game for Jaren Jackson Jr.104–117
- Q433.7Jaylen Wells personal foul104–117
- Q440.1RJ Barrett defensive rebound104–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22.3Jock Landale makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope assists)MEM 47 – 53 TOR · MEM 18% → 25% +6MEM 18% → 25%+6 pts
- Q32:19Santi Aldama makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cam Spencer assists)MEM 71 – 77 TOR · MEM 15% → 23% +8MEM 15% → 23%+8 pts
- Q45:56Jamal Shead makes 27-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)MEM 90 – 100 TOR · TOR 88% → 94% +7TOR 88% → 94%+7 pts
- Q44:34RJ Barrett makes 26-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)MEM 95 – 104 TOR · TOR 87% → 95% +8TOR 87% → 95%+8 pts
- Q44:19Vince Williams Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)MEM 98 – 104 TOR · MEM 5% → 13% +8MEM 5% → 13%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -4.5
- ML MEM +160 / TOR -190
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -4
- TOR 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 65.2%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -170
- MEM +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 117.0 – 121.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −91 | +41 | MEM: Missing Ja Morant −43 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MEM crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | TOR +109 Elo | TOR 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 61.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 119.811th of 30 |
| 25th of 30122.0 | Points allowed | 123.326th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.0 | Margin | −3.523rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.0 | Offense rating | 114.712th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 118.027th of 30 |
| 4th of 30106.3 | Pace | 104.39th of 30 |
| 10th of 291–1 | Road vs home | 0–226th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 151910th of 30 |
| 17th of 301507 | Elo rating | 143623rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−91 Elo- Ja Morant suspended by team−43 Elo
Raptors
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 3–1 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.