Houston Rockets at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints31
- Alperen SengunAssists9
- Steven AdamsRebounds12
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints31
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists7
- Scottie BarnesRebounds5
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game139–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter139–121
- Q48.7shot clock turnover139–121
- Q432.8Gradey Dick makes free throw 1 of 1139–121
- Q432.8Josh Okogie shooting foul139–120
- Q432.8Gradey Dick makes driving layup (Jamal Shead assists)139–120
- Q443.1Reed Sheppard enters the game for Alperen Sengun139–118
- Q443.1Tari Eason personal foul139–118
- Q447.1Josh Okogie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)139–118
- Q41:00Amen Thompson defensive rebound136–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:03RJ Barrett makes 24-foot three point jumper (Collin Murray-Boyles assists)HOU 50 – 50 TOR · TOR 30% → 37% +7TOR 30% → 37%+7 pts
- Q25:35Jamal Shead makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotHOU 52 – 53 TOR · TOR 33% → 40% +7TOR 33% → 40%+7 pts
- Q25:10Brandon Ingram makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotHOU 52 – 56 TOR · TOR 40% → 48% +8TOR 40% → 48%+8 pts
- Q24:25Collin Murray-Boyles makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)HOU 54 – 59 TOR · TOR 43% → 51% +8TOR 43% → 51%+8 pts
- Q23:41Jabari Smith Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 59 – 59 TOR · HOU 54% → 62% +8HOU 54% → 62%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -5.5
- ML HOU -215 / TOR +180
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -3
- HOU 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 61.4%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -191
- TOR +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 119.5 – 114.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +42 | +31 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | HOU crossed 1 time zone and TOR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +81 Elo | HOU 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 65.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 65.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30124.0 | Points scored | 121.59th of 30 |
| 15th of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 125.025th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+7.7 | Margin | −3.518th of 30 |
| 4th of 30119.8 | Offense rating | 113.311th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 116.623rd of 30 |
| 29th of 3096.7 | Pace | 106.96th of 30 |
| 19th of 290–1 | Road vs home | 0–124th of 30 |
| 12th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 148422nd of 30 |
| 12th of 301539 | Elo rating | 143424th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  HOU |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 47–42 | 49–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 32–28 | 10–5 |
| Underdog | 15–14 | 39–28 |
| Overs–unders | 48–41 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–1 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.