Brooklyn Nets at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Terance MannPoints21
- Ben SarafAssists5
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds12
Rockets- Tari EasonPoints22
- Reed SheppardAssists8
- Steven AdamsRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–137
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–137
- Q45.4Nolan Traore makes free throw 2 of 2109–137
- Q45.4Nets offensive team rebound108–137
- Q45.4Nolan Traore misses free throw 1 of 2108–137
- Q45.4Jeff Green shooting foul108–137
- Q49.7shot clock turnover108–137
- Q49.7Rockets offensive team rebound108–137
- Q49.7JD Davison misses 35-foot three point jumper108–137
- Q433.8Day'Ron Sharpe makes free throw 2 of 2108–137
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:10Alperen Sengun makes driving layup (Amen Thompson assists)BKN 0 – 2 HOU · HOU 87% → 91% +4HOU 87% → 91%+4 pts
- Q110:53Terance Mann makes 26-foot three pointer (Nic Claxton assists)BKN 3 – 2 HOU · BKN 9% → 12% +3BKN 9% → 12%+3 pts
- Q16:59Josh Okogie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tari Eason assists)BKN 13 – 16 HOU · HOU 88% → 91% +3HOU 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q16:33Terance Mann makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nic Claxton assists)BKN 16 – 16 HOU · BKN 9% → 12% +3BKN 9% → 12%+3 pts
- Q12:48Day'Ron Sharpe makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Wilson assists)BKN 25 – 27 HOU · BKN 8% → 11% +3BKN 8% → 11%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -15.5
- ML BKN +800 / HOU -1600
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -7.5
- HOU 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 76.9%, market 89.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -847
- BKN +847 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 104.5 – 120.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1369 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +32 | +43 | BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +209 Elo | HOU 76.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 83.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 83.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 89.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30105.1 | Points scored | 114.313th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.2 | Points allowed | 109.86th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.1 | Margin | +4.57th of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.8 | Offense rating | 112.816th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 108.43rd of 30 |
| 27th of 3097.9 | Pace | 100.715th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 21st of 3014–27 | Road vs home | 29–126th of 30 |
| 9th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15064th of 30 |
| 29th of 301369 | Elo rating | 153113th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  BKN |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–39 | 47–42 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 32–28 |
| Underdog | 38–32 | 15–14 |
| Overs–unders | 38–44 | 48–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 3–1 HOU in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.