Brooklyn Nets at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints41
- Ben SarafAssists5
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds6
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints31
- Dylan HarperAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–118
- Q43.2Victor Wembanyama makes technical free throw107–118
- Q43.2Jordi Fernandez technical foul107–117
- Q43.5shot clock turnover107–117
- Q427.3Spurs defensive team rebound107–117
- Q430.3Noah Clowney misses 26-foot three point jumper107–117
- Q435.6Victor Wembanyama makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Keldon Johnson assists)107–117
- Q444.2Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound107–115
- Q447.4Michael Porter Jr. misses 14-foot two point shot107–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:32Egor Demin makes 27-foot three point jumper (Noah Clowney assists)BKN 93 – 92 SA · BKN 27% → 40% +13BKN 27% → 40%+13 pts
- Q44:31Cam Thomas makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshotBKN 103 – 103 SA · BKN 22% → 40% +18BKN 22% → 40%+18 pts
- Q44:12Dylan Harper makes 2-foot two point shotBKN 103 – 105 SA · SA 60% → 73% +13SA 60% → 73%+13 pts
- Q42:47Terance Mann makes 12-foot step back jumpshotBKN 107 – 108 SA · BKN 20% → 34% +14BKN 20% → 34%+14 pts
- Q42:28Keldon Johnson makes 1-foot two point shot (Victor Wembanyama assists)BKN 107 – 110 SA · SA 66% → 81% +15SA 66% → 81%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- SA -10.5
- ML BKN +380 / SA -550
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -5.5
- SA 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- SA: Elo 71.0%, market 80.2%
- Fair odds
- SA -406
- BKN +406 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 108.5 – 119.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1375 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +20 | +36 | BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +155 Elo | SA 71.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 70.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 70.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 80.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30105.1 | Points scored | 113.916th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.2 | Points allowed | 116.723rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.1 | Margin | −2.821st of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.8 | Offense rating | 112.419th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 115.125th of 30 |
| 27th of 3097.9 | Pace | 101.112th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 21st of 3014–27 | Road vs home | 20–2020th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 30 |
| 28th of 301375 | Elo rating | 147820th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  BKN |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–39 | 39–43 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 13–12 |
| Underdog | 38–32 | 26–31 |
| Overs–unders | 38–44 | 47–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 1–3 SA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.