San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints40
- Stephon CastleAssists6
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds15
Mavericks- Anthony DavisPoints22
- Ryan NembhardAssists5
- Anthony DavisRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–92
- Q43.8shot clock turnover125–92
- Q426.6Carter Bryant defensive rebound125–92
- Q429.7Jaden Hardy misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot125–92
- Q437.3Harrison Ingram makes 26-foot three point shot (David Jones Garcia assists)125–92
- Q442.0Ryan Nembhard bad pass (Bismack Biyombo steals)122–92
- Q459.9David Jones Garcia makes free throw 1 of 1122–92
- Q459.9Jaden Hardy shooting foul121–92
- Q459.9David Jones Garcia makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot121–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:38Max Christie makes 25-foot three point shot (D'Angelo Russell assists)SA 39 – 40 DAL · DAL 53% → 61% +8DAL 53% → 61%+8 pts
- Q24:01P.J. Washington makes 25-foot three point jumperSA 43 – 46 DAL · DAL 58% → 66% +8DAL 58% → 66%+8 pts
- Q228.7Klay Thompson makes 22-foot three point jumperSA 58 – 51 DAL · DAL 30% → 38% +8DAL 30% → 38%+8 pts
- Q39:52Julian Champagnie makes 23-foot three point shot (Victor Wembanyama assists)SA 65 – 55 DAL · SA 64% → 72% +8SA 64% → 72%+8 pts
- Q38:52Victor Wembanyama makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotSA 70 – 57 DAL · SA 73% → 80% +7SA 73% → 80%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -3.5
- ML SA +145 / DAL -170
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- DAL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.7 pts
- DAL: Elo 51.0%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- DAL -154
- SA +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 110.0 – 113.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +47 | 0 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +7 Elo | DAL 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 56.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30113.9 | Points scored | 114.215th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.7 | Points allowed | 115.420th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.8 | Margin | −1.219th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 112.817th of 30 |
| 25th of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 113.920th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.1 | Pace | 101.013th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3013–27 | Road vs home | 22–1815th of 30 |
| 7th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15063rd of 30 |
| 24th of 301449 | Elo rating | 146621st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  SA |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–43 | 39–43 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 13–12 | 16–19 |
| Underdog | 26–31 | 23–24 |
| Overs–unders | 47–35 | 44–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 1–7 DAL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Mar 12DAL 116 @ SA 126Picked SA 68%Hit
- Mar 10DAL 133 @ SA 129Picked SA 69%Miss
- Nov 16SA 93 @ DAL 110Picked DAL 85%Hit
- Oct 24SA 109 @ DAL 120Picked DAL 76%Hit
- Mar 19DAL 113 @ SA 107Picked DAL 68%Hit
- Feb 14SA 93 @ DAL 116Picked DAL 77%Hit
- Dec 23SA 119 @ DAL 144Picked DAL 69%Hit
- Oct 25DAL 126 @ SA 119Picked SA 55%Miss