San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints29
- Stephon CastleAssists6
- Luke KornetRebounds12
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints27
- Zion WilliamsonAssists7
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds10
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game120–116
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime120–116
- OT1.9Harrison Barnes makes free throw 2 of 2120–116
- OT1.9Harrison Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2119–116
- OT1.9Jordan Poole personal foul118–116
- OT3.0Jeremiah Fears makes driving layup (Zion Williamson assists)118–116
- OT5.7Pelicans Full timeout118–114
- OT5.7Stephon Castle out of bounds lost ball turnover118–114
- OT7.5Spurs Full timeout118–114
- OT7.5Spurs Full timeout118–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:07Trey Murphy III makes layupSA 104 – 104 NO · NO 24% → 48% +25NO 24% → 48%+25 pts
- Q432.2Zion Williamson makes 9-foot pullup jump shotSA 104 – 106 NO · NO 49% → 83% +34NO 49% → 83%+34 pts
- Q421.0Stephon Castle makes 26-foot three point jumper (Luke Kornet assists)SA 107 – 106 NO · SA 12% → 74% +62SA 12% → 74%+62 pts
- Q412.2Zion Williamson makes free throw 1 of 2SA 107 – 107 NO · NO 21% → 49% +29NO 21% → 49%+29 pts
- OT4:05Devin Vassell makes 26-foot three pointer (Luke Kornet assists)SA 112 – 108 NO · SA 60% → 78% +19SA 60% → 78%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- SA -3.5
- ML SA -165 / NO +140
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -2.5
- SA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- SA: Elo 59.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- SA -149
- NO +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 118.5 – 115.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1397 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +55 | +31 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +64 Elo | SA 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 56.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30113.9 | Points scored | 109.825th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.7 | Points allowed | 119.326th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.8 | Margin | −9.429th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 108.426th of 30 |
| 25th of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 117.729th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.1 | Pace | 100.914th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3013–27 | Road vs home | 14–2725th of 30 |
| 10th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15101st of 30 |
| 20th of 301473 | Elo rating | 139726th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  SA |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–43 | 34–48 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–12 | 9–9 |
| Underdog | 26–31 | 25–39 |
| Overs–unders | 47–35 | 45–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 3–5 NO in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.