Toronto Raptors at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints33
- Jamal SheadAssists8
- Scottie BarnesRebounds11
Mavericks- Anthony DavisPoints25
- D'Angelo RussellAssists6
- Anthony DavisRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–139
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–139
- Q40.6Caleb Martin makes 1-foot driving dunk (Dwight Powell assists)129–139
- Q45.8Dwight Powell defensive rebound129–137
- Q48.6Gradey Dick misses 23-foot three point jumper129–137
- Q415.5Dwight Powell lost ball turnover (Jonathan Mogbo steals)129–137
- Q415.9Dwight Powell offensive rebound129–137
- Q418.8Jonathan Mogbo blocks Jaden Hardy 's 5-foot driving layup129–137
- Q438.5Gradey Dick makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)129–137
- Q443.4Miles Kelly turnover126–137
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:32Cooper Flagg makes 24-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)TOR 54 – 55 DAL · DAL 44% → 52% +8DAL 44% → 52%+8 pts
- Q22:15Max Christie makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cooper Flagg assists)TOR 60 – 60 DAL · DAL 41% → 49% +8DAL 41% → 49%+8 pts
- Q310:14Brandon Ingram makes 25-foot three pointerTOR 74 – 69 DAL · TOR 57% → 66% +9TOR 57% → 66%+9 pts
- Q36:23Scottie Barnes makes 24-foot three pointerTOR 82 – 80 DAL · TOR 47% → 57% +10TOR 47% → 57%+10 pts
- Q31:40Max Christie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Naji Marshall assists)TOR 89 – 98 DAL · DAL 72% → 81% +9DAL 72% → 81%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -1.5
- ML TOR -115 / DAL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 43%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -1
- TOR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 53.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -104
- DAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 117.0 – 115.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1427 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +33 | −2 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +27 Elo | TOR 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 56.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30110.9 | Points scored | 114.215th of 30 |
| 18th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 115.420th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.3 | Margin | −1.219th of 30 |
| 25th of 30108.4 | Offense rating | 112.817th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 113.920th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.6 | Pace | 101.013th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 24th of 3012–29 | Road vs home | 22–1815th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15083rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301455 | Elo rating | 142724th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  TOR |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 49–33 | 39–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–5 | 16–19 |
| Underdog | 39–28 | 23–24 |
| Overs–unders | 42–40 | 44–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–3 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.