Washington Wizards at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Kyshawn GeorgePoints34
- Alex SarrAssists5
- Kyshawn GeorgeRebounds11
Mavericks- Anthony DavisPoints27
- Cooper FlaggAssists6
- Anthony DavisRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–107
- Q416.6Tre Johnson enters the game for Alex Sarr117–107
- Q416.6Brandon Williams enters the game for Cooper Flagg117–107
- Q416.6Jaden Hardy enters the game for P.J. Washington117–107
- Q416.6Moussa Cisse enters the game for Naji Marshall117–107
- Q416.6Ryan Nembhard enters the game for Anthony Davis117–107
- Q416.6Dwight Powell enters the game for Max Christie117–107
- Q416.6Wizards Full timeout117–107
- Q416.6Wizards Full timeout117–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:58Max Christie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cooper Flagg assists)WSH 94 – 86 DAL · DAL 18% → 28% +10DAL 18% → 28%+10 pts
- Q46:19Cooper Flagg makes 21-foot pullup jump shotWSH 103 – 99 DAL · DAL 28% → 38% +10DAL 28% → 38%+10 pts
- Q44:55Alex Sarr makes layup (Bub Carrington assists)WSH 105 – 99 DAL · WSH 66% → 77% +11WSH 66% → 77%+11 pts
- Q44:27Bub Carrington makes 23-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)WSH 108 – 99 DAL · WSH 79% → 91% +12WSH 79% → 91%+12 pts
- Q44:00Cooper Flagg makes 24-foot three pointer (Anthony Davis assists)WSH 108 – 102 DAL · DAL 8% → 19% +11DAL 8% → 19%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -9.5
- ML WSH +320 / DAL -425
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -4.5
- DAL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.6 pts
- DAL: Elo 66.7%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -340
- WSH +340 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 109.5 – 119.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1344 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +11 | −4 | WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +121 Elo | DAL 66.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 72.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 71.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 77.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30108.0 | Points scored | 114.215th of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.4 | Points allowed | 115.420th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−12.4 | Margin | −1.219th of 30 |
| 30th of 30104.9 | Offense rating | 112.817th of 30 |
| 27th of 30116.9 | Defense rating | 113.920th of 30 |
| 4th of 30102.7 | Pace | 101.013th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 27th of 3010–31 | Road vs home | 22–1815th of 30 |
| 4th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15063rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301344 | Elo rating | 144224th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  WSH |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–47 | 39–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 16–19 |
| Underdog | 35–44 | 23–24 |
| Overs–unders | 40–42 | 44–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–4 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.