Toronto Raptors at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints25
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists7
- Collin Murray-BoylesRebounds3
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints24
- Dylan HarperAssists6
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–121
- Q415.1Jamal Shead bad pass (Bismack Biyombo steals)103–121
- Q424.6Riley Minix kicked ball violation103–121
- Q430.2David Jones Garcia makes 6-foot two point shot103–121
- Q450.6Jonathan Mogbo makes two point shot (Jamal Shead assists)103–119
- Q454.3Jamal Shead defensive rebound101–119
- Q457.1David Jones Garcia misses driving layup101–119
- Q41:08Ochai Agbaji makes 1-foot layup (Jonathan Mogbo assists)101–119
- Q41:25Bismack Biyombo makes 1-foot dunk (Riley Minix assists)99–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:08Harrison Barnes makes 24-foot three point jumper (Julian Champagnie assists)TOR 0 – 5 SA · SA 66% → 72% +6SA 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q13:21Collin Murray-Boyles makes 25-foot three point jumper (Sandro Mamukelashvili assists)TOR 20 – 29 SA · TOR 16% → 21% +5TOR 16% → 21%+5 pts
- Q13:02Dylan Harper makes 24-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)TOR 20 – 32 SA · SA 79% → 84% +5SA 79% → 84%+5 pts
- Q46:12Collin Murray-Boyles makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)TOR 98 – 106 SA · TOR 4% → 10% +6TOR 4% → 10%+6 pts
- Q45:14Harrison Barnes makes 25-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)TOR 98 – 109 SA · SA 91% → 97% +5SA 91% → 97%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- SA -4.5
- ML TOR +155 / SA -185
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -4
- SA 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- SA: Elo 65.8%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- SA -166
- TOR +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 114.5 – 119.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +46 | +44 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +114 Elo | SA 65.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 63.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30127.7 | Points scored | 121.011th of 30 |
| 26th of 30126.3 | Points allowed | 105.02nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +16.01st of 30 |
| 10th of 30116.3 | Offense rating | 118.96th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 103.22nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.4 | Pace | 98.427th of 30 |
| 8th of 281–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301480 | Opponent Elo | 140029th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301444 | Elo rating | 148419th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  TOR |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 49–33 | 39–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–5 | 13–12 |
| Underdog | 39–28 | 26–31 |
| Overs–unders | 42–40 | 47–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–3 SA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.