Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Brandon IngramPoints20
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists6
- Scottie BarnesRebounds10
Cavaliers- Evan MobleyPoints29
- Lonzo BallAssists5
- Evan MobleyRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–101
- Q44.3RJ Barrett makes 2-foot driving dunk112–101
- Q49.4Scottie Barnes defensive rebound110–101
- Q412.0De'Andre Hunter misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot110–101
- Q426.6Jamison Battle makes driving dunk (RJ Barrett assists)110–101
- Q428.9De'Andre Hunter makes 27-foot three pointer (Evan Mobley assists)108–101
- Q430.6Evan Mobley offensive rebound108–98
- Q433.7De'Andre Hunter misses 25-foot three point shot108–98
- Q436.8Larry Nance Jr. enters the game for Jaylon Tyson108–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q318.3RJ Barrett makes 25-foot three point shot (Immanuel Quickley assists)TOR 81 – 77 CLE · TOR 47% → 60% +12TOR 47% → 60%+12 pts
- Q46:33Jamal Shead makes two point shot (Sandro Mamukelashvili assists)TOR 90 – 90 CLE · TOR 34% → 45% +11TOR 34% → 45%+11 pts
- Q46:16Thomas Bryant makes dunkTOR 90 – 92 CLE · CLE 55% → 66% +11CLE 55% → 66%+11 pts
- Q46:01Jamison Battle makes 25-foot three pointer (Brandon Ingram assists)TOR 93 – 92 CLE · TOR 34% → 51% +17TOR 34% → 51%+17 pts
- Q45:18Brandon Ingram makes 12-foot two point shotTOR 95 – 92 CLE · TOR 52% → 64% +12TOR 52% → 64%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -4.5
- ML TOR +160 / CLE -190
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -1.5
- CLE 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 55.8%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -170
- TOR +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 116.5 – 121.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1423 | 1593 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +34 | −131 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +41 Elo | CLE 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 61.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30121.4 | Points scored | 116.217th of 30 |
| 28th of 30127.8 | Points allowed | 115.211th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−6.4 | Margin | +1.013th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.8 | Offense rating | 111.321st of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.9 | Defense rating | 110.311th of 30 |
| 6th of 30105.4 | Pace | 104.59th of 30 |
| 16th of 291–2 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
| 12th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 152410th of 30 |
| 24th of 301423 | Elo rating | 15934th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−131 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| Last 10 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | — |
| Overs–unders | 4–1 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–1 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–6 CLE in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.