Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Evan MobleyPoints19
- Donovan MitchellAssists6
- Evan MobleyRebounds11
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints30
- Payton PritchardAssists10
- Josh MinottRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–125
- Q412.0shot clock turnover105–125
- Q435.1Xavier Tillman defensive rebound105–125
- Q437.8Thomas Bryant misses 15-foot jumper105–125
- Q450.3Xavier Tillman enters the game for Sam Hauser105–125
- Q450.3Luka Garza makes free throw 2 of 2105–125
- Q450.3Larry Nance Jr. enters the game for Jaylon Tyson105–124
- Q450.3Luka Garza makes free throw 1 of 2105–124
- Q450.3Jaylon Tyson shooting foul105–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:44Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)CLE 47 – 51 BOS · BOS 45% → 52% +8BOS 45% → 52%+8 pts
- Q24:15Lonzo Ball makes 26-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)CLE 54 – 55 BOS · CLE 47% → 55% +8CLE 47% → 55%+8 pts
- Q23:54Jaylon Tyson makes 25-foot three point shot (Lonzo Ball assists)CLE 57 – 55 BOS · CLE 55% → 63% +8CLE 55% → 63%+8 pts
- Q23:02Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot three point jumper (Neemias Queta assists)CLE 57 – 60 BOS · BOS 43% → 51% +8BOS 43% → 51%+8 pts
- Q22:20Derrick White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)CLE 57 – 63 BOS · BOS 51% → 59% +8BOS 51% → 59%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -3.5
- ML CLE -165 / BOS +140
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -2.5
- CLE 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 59.0%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- CLE -149
- BOS +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 118.5 – 115.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1613 | 1605 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −9 | −88 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | BOS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +63 Elo | CLE 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 62.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 111.524th of 30 |
| 7th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 107.82nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+6.3 | Margin | +3.813th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 111.816th of 30 |
| 6th of 30106.5 | Defense rating | 108.17th of 30 |
| 6th of 30106.1 | Pace | 100.125th of 30 |
| 6th of 292–1 | Road vs home | 0–124th of 30 |
| 17th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 146426th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301613 | Elo rating | 16053rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−88 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  CLE |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 53–38 | 44–49 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 47–35 | 43–45 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders | 57–34 | 43–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 4–8 BOS in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.
- Feb 28CLE 123 @ BOS 116Picked BOS 51%Miss
- Feb 4BOS 112 @ CLE 105Picked CLE 52%Miss
- Dec 1BOS 111 @ CLE 115Picked CLE 53%Hit
- Nov 19CLE 117 @ BOS 120Picked BOS 70%Hit
- May 15CLE 98 @ BOS 113PlayoffsPicked BOS 83%Hit
- May 13BOS 109 @ CLE 102PlayoffsPicked BOS 74%Hit
- May 11BOS 106 @ CLE 93PlayoffsPicked BOS 64%Hit
- May 9CLE 118 @ BOS 94PlayoffsPicked BOS 78%Miss