Boston Celtics at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Anfernee SimonsPoints25
- Payton PritchardAssists8
- Neemias QuetaRebounds11
Pelicans- Jordan PoolePoints22
- Trey Murphy IIIAssists5
- Yves MissiRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–90
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–90
- Q415.7Jeremiah Fears out of bounds lost ball turnover122–90
- Q425.3Xavier Tillman makes 9-foot two point shot (Josh Minott assists)122–90
- Q429.6Josh Minott defensive rebound120–90
- Q430.8Micah Peavy misses tip shot120–90
- Q430.8Micah Peavy offensive rebound120–90
- Q434.8Bryce McGowens misses two point shot120–90
- Q448.1Josh Minott makes 2-foot two point shot (Xavier Tillman assists)120–90
- Q458.8Baylor Scheierman defensive rebound118–90
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:14Sam Hauser makes 25-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)BOS 78 – 71 NO · BOS 70% → 79% +8BOS 70% → 79%+8 pts
- Q34:15Saddiq Bey makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jose Alvarado assists)BOS 78 – 74 NO · NO 21% → 29% +9NO 21% → 29%+9 pts
- Q33:50Baylor Scheierman makes 28-foot three pointer (Luka Garza assists)BOS 81 – 74 NO · BOS 71% → 79% +9BOS 71% → 79%+9 pts
- Q49:14Jordan Poole makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotBOS 91 – 86 NO · NO 14% → 23% +9NO 14% → 23%+9 pts
- Q48:57Sam Hauser makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)BOS 94 – 86 NO · BOS 77% → 86% +9BOS 77% → 86%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -4.5
- ML BOS -185 / NO +155
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -2
- BOS 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 58.4%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -166
- NO +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 118.0 – 113.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1587 | 1392 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −98 | −38 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +59 Elo | BOS 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 68.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 67.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 109.825th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.2 | Points allowed | 119.326th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+9.1 | Margin | −9.429th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.1 | Offense rating | 108.426th of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.9 | Defense rating | 117.729th of 30 |
| 28th of 3097.7 | Pace | 100.914th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 1st of 3033–8 | Road vs home | 14–2725th of 30 |
| 30th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 15102nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301587 | Elo rating | 139227th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−98 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  BOS |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–49 | 34–48 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 43–45 | 9–9 |
| Underdog | 1–4 | 25–39 |
| Overs–unders | 43–50 | 45–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–0 NO in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.