Dallas Mavericks at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- D'Angelo RussellPoints31
- Max ChristieAssists5
- Cooper FlaggRebounds8
Pistons- Jalen DurenPoints33
- Cade CunninghamAssists18
- Jalen DurenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–122
- Q43.3shot clock turnover110–122
- Q425.1Javonte Green defensive rebound110–122
- Q429.3D'Angelo Russell misses 32-foot three point pullup jump shot110–122
- Q434.6Cade Cunningham makes 30-foot three pointer (Javonte Green assists)110–122
- Q452.6Javonte Green defensive rebound110–119
- Q455.3Klay Thompson misses 26-foot three point jumper110–119
- Q41:10Jalen Duren makes free throw 2 of 2110–119
- Q41:10Klay Thompson enters the game for Naji Marshall110–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:46Duncan Robinson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DAL 93 – 94 DET · DET 50% → 64% +14DET 50% → 64%+14 pts
- Q49:20D'Angelo Russell makes 27-foot three point jumper (Cooper Flagg assists)DAL 96 – 94 DET · DAL 36% → 50% +14DAL 36% → 50%+14 pts
- Q48:55D'Angelo Russell makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Caleb Martin assists)DAL 99 – 94 DET · DAL 50% → 65% +14DAL 50% → 65%+14 pts
- Q47:57Javonte Green makes 26-foot three point shot (Cade Cunningham assists)DAL 99 – 100 DET · DET 49% → 64% +15DET 49% → 64%+15 pts
- Q44:51D'Angelo Russell makes 27-foot three point jumper (Max Christie assists)DAL 106 – 105 DET · DAL 31% → 50% +19DAL 31% → 50%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DET -7.5
- ML DAL +225 / DET -275
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -5.5
- DET 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- DET: Elo 70.7%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -238
- DAL +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 110.0 – 117.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Lineups | −53 | +28 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +153 Elo | DET 70.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 66.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30107.8 | Points scored | 115.020th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.4 | Points allowed | 114.28th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.6 | Margin | +0.813th of 30 |
| 30th of 30101.6 | Offense rating | 109.726th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.8 | Defense rating | 109.06th of 30 |
| 5th of 30106.2 | Pace | 105.16th of 30 |
| 18th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15602nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301440 | Elo rating | 151215th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 1–4 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–4 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 2–2 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.