Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints27
- Jarace WalkerAssists5
- Pascal SiakamRebounds13
Mavericks- Brandon WilliamsPoints20
- D'Angelo RussellAssists5
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–107
- Q40.1Pacers offensive team rebound105–107
- Q40.9Aaron Nesmith misses 26-foot three point jumper105–107
- Q43.4Aaron Nesmith offensive rebound105–107
- Q43.4RayJ Dennis misses free throw 2 of 2105–107
- Q43.4Dwight Powell enters the game for D'Angelo Russell105–107
- Q43.4Naji Marshall enters the game for Brandon Williams105–107
- Q43.4RayJ Dennis makes free throw 1 of 2105–107
- Q43.4Brandon Williams personal take foul104–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:50Max Christie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandon Williams assists)IND 50 – 46 DAL · DAL 44% → 52% +8DAL 44% → 52%+8 pts
- Q39:04Jay Huff makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jarace Walker assists)IND 60 – 60 DAL · IND 30% → 39% +9IND 30% → 39%+9 pts
- Q335.9Caleb Martin makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cooper Flagg assists)IND 72 – 78 DAL · DAL 70% → 80% +10DAL 70% → 80%+10 pts
- Q42:47Pascal Siakam makes 25-foot three point jumper (RayJ Dennis assists)IND 96 – 101 DAL · IND 3% → 12% +8IND 3% → 12%+8 pts
- Q42:04Pascal Siakam makes 26-foot three point jumper (RayJ Dennis assists)IND 99 – 103 DAL · IND 3% → 14% +10IND 3% → 14%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -5.5
- ML IND +190 / DAL -225
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -0.5
- DAL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −18.5 pts
- DAL: Elo 48.3%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- DAL -201
- IND +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 112.0 – 117.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −83 | −2 | IND: Missing Obi Toppin −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DAL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +12 Elo | IND 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 55.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30116.0 | Points scored | 108.029th of 30 |
| 26th of 30127.7 | Points allowed | 118.017th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−11.7 | Margin | −10.026th of 30 |
| 28th of 30105.7 | Offense rating | 102.530th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.3 | Defense rating | 112.012th of 30 |
| 18th of 30102.5 | Pace | 105.47th of 30 |
| 20th of 290–2 | Road vs home | 1–324th of 30 |
| 1st of 301586 | Opponent Elo | 147923rd of 30 |
| 7th of 301564 | Elo rating | 143523rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−83 Elo- Obi Toppin stress reaction, right foot−4 Elo
Mavericks
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  IND |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 50–55 | 39–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 25–34 | 16–19 |
| Underdog | 25–21 | 23–24 |
| Overs–unders | 56–49 | 44–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 4–0 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.