Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints23
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds12
Mavericks- Anthony DavisPoints26
- D'Angelo RussellAssists10
- Anthony DavisRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–94
- Q40.1Mavericks offensive team rebound101–94
- Q40.3Chet Holmgren blocks Cooper Flagg 's 49-foot heave jump shot101–94
- Q43.3Chet Holmgren makes free throw 2 of 2101–94
- Q43.3Chet Holmgren makes free throw 1 of 2100–94
- Q43.3Anthony Davis personal foul99–94
- Q412.2Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound99–94
- Q414.8P.J. Washington misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot99–94
- Q421.3Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 299–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:14Anthony Davis makes 12-foot jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)OKC 93 – 89 DAL · DAL 8% → 16% +8DAL 8% → 16%+8 pts
- Q42:52Isaiah Hartenstein makes tip shotOKC 95 – 89 DAL · OKC 85% → 93% +8OKC 85% → 93%+8 pts
- Q41:25Anthony Davis makes driving layup (D'Angelo Russell assists)OKC 95 – 91 DAL · DAL 3% → 9% +6DAL 3% → 9%+6 pts
- Q454.8D'Angelo Russell makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (Anthony Davis assists)OKC 95 – 94 DAL · DAL 11% → 32% +21DAL 11% → 32%+21 pts
- Q433.8Isaiah Hartenstein makes driving layup (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 97 – 94 DAL · OKC 71% → 94% +22OKC 71% → 94%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -9.5
- ML OKC -400 / DAL +300
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -7
- OKC 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- OKC: Elo 74.9%, market 76.2%
- Fair odds
- OKC -320
- DAL +320 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 118.0 – 108.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1659 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −39 | −4 | OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +190 Elo | OKC 74.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 77.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 76.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 76.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30127.7 | Points scored | 112.725th of 30 |
| 18th of 30119.7 | Points allowed | 123.722nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+8.0 | Margin | −11.026th of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.8 | Offense rating | 104.928th of 30 |
| 6th of 30106.6 | Defense rating | 115.219th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.4 | Pace | 107.45th of 30 |
| 1st of 282–0 | Road vs home | 1–222nd of 30 |
| 12th of 301520 | Opponent Elo | 142228th of 30 |
| 1st of 301659 | Elo rating | 143923rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  OKC |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 67–39 | 39–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 64–38 | 16–19 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 23–24 |
| Overs–unders | 57–49 | 44–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 6–8 DAL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 14.
- Jan 23DAL 121 @ OKC 115Picked OKC 83%Miss
- Jan 17OKC 98 @ DAL 106Picked OKC 57%Miss
- Dec 10DAL 104 @ OKC 118Picked OKC 61%Hit
- Nov 17DAL 121 @ OKC 119Picked OKC 72%Miss
- May 18OKC 116 @ DAL 117PlayoffsPicked DAL 51%Hit
- May 15DAL 104 @ OKC 92PlayoffsPicked OKC 62%Miss
- May 13OKC 100 @ DAL 96PlayoffsPicked DAL 50%Miss
- May 11OKC 101 @ DAL 105PlayoffsPicked OKC 51%Miss