Oklahoma City Thunder at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Chet HolmgrenPoints31
- Ajay MitchellAssists7
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds11
Hawks- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerPoints17
- Trae YoungAssists10
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–100
- Q41.5shot clock turnover117–100
- Q426.3N'Faly Dante makes free throw 1 of 1117–100
- Q426.3Jaylin Williams loose ball foul117–99
- Q426.3Keaton Wallace makes 12-foot two point shot117–99
- Q438.9Chris Youngblood makes free throw 2 of 2117–97
- Q438.9Chris Youngblood makes free throw 1 of 2116–97
- Q438.9Jacob Toppin personal foul115–97
- Q448.9Asa Newell makes free throw 2 of 2115–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:40Mouhamed Gueye makes 25-foot three point jumper (Onyeka Okongwu assists)OKC 8 – 8 ATL · ATL 22% → 27% +5ATL 22% → 27%+5 pts
- Q16:13Chet Holmgren makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ajay Mitchell assists)OKC 17 – 14 ATL · OKC 72% → 77% +5OKC 72% → 77%+5 pts
- Q23:23Cason Wallace makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 52 – 46 ATL · OKC 75% → 81% +6OKC 75% → 81%+6 pts
- Q23:12Dyson Daniels makes 24-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)OKC 52 – 49 ATL · ATL 19% → 25% +6ATL 19% → 25%+6 pts
- Q22:39Trae Young makes 22-foot three point jumper (Mouhamed Gueye assists)OKC 54 – 52 ATL · ATL 21% → 27% +7ATL 21% → 27%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -8.5
- ML OKC -320 / ATL +260
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -5
- OKC 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- OKC: Elo 69.5%, market 73.3%
- Fair odds
- OKC -274
- ATL +274 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 122.5 – 114.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1651 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −41 | +2 | OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +143 Elo | OKC 69.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 72.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 72.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 73.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.0 | Points scored | 118.25th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.5 | Points allowed | 119.327th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.5 | Margin | −1.118th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.7 | Offense rating | 112.618th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.4 | Defense rating | 113.718th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.8 | Pace | 104.43rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3032–8 | Road vs home | 21–1919th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 1st of 301651 | Elo rating | 147021st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  OKC |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 67–39 | 41–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 64–38 | 13–19 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 28–22 |
| Overs–unders | 57–49 | 50–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 3–1 ATL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.