Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- P.J. WashingtonPoints29
- D'Angelo RussellAssists12
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds12
Rockets- Amen ThompsonPoints27
- Alperen SengunAssists6
- Alperen SengunRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–110
- Q46.9Josh Okogie defensive rebound102–110
- Q410.2P.J. Washington misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot102–110
- Q415.1Tari Eason makes dunk (Josh Okogie assists)102–110
- Q416.3Aaron Holiday defensive rebound102–108
- Q419.5Amen Thompson blocks Cooper Flagg 's 25-foot three point jumper102–108
- Q427.1Mavericks Full timeout102–108
- Q427.1Amen Thompson makes free throw 2 of 2102–108
- Q427.1Aaron Holiday enters the game for Alperen Sengun102–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:45Max Christie makes 25-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)DAL 90 – 91 HOU · DAL 18% → 30% +13DAL 18% → 30%+13 pts
- Q45:43Kevin Durant makes 25-foot three pointerDAL 92 – 96 HOU · HOU 69% → 83% +14HOU 69% → 83%+14 pts
- Q45:05Kevin Durant makes 26-foot three pointerDAL 94 – 99 HOU · HOU 74% → 87% +13HOU 74% → 87%+13 pts
- Q43:35Amen Thompson makes 9-foot two point shotDAL 99 – 101 HOU · HOU 61% → 74% +14HOU 61% → 74%+14 pts
- Q41:35Alperen Sengun makes 8-foot two point shotDAL 102 – 105 HOU · HOU 68% → 85% +17HOU 68% → 85%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -12.5
- ML DAL +500 / HOU -800
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -10
- HOU 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 83.7%, market 84.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -533
- DAL +533 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 107.0 – 119.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −53 | +62 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +284 Elo | HOU 83.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 80.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 81.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 84.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30108.2 | Points scored | 127.81st of 30 |
| 14th of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 114.29th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.3 | Margin | +13.61st of 30 |
| 30th of 30102.9 | Offense rating | 125.21st of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 111.812th of 30 |
| 4th of 30105.1 | Pace | 97.929th of 30 |
| 18th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 151412th of 30 |
| 25th of 301434 | Elo rating | 15678th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–4 | 4–1 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 4–1 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 2–4 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4 | 4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 4–4 HOU in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- Mar 14DAL 96 @ HOU 133Picked HOU 82%Hit
- Feb 8HOU 105 @ DAL 116Picked DAL 58%Hit
- Jan 1DAL 99 @ HOU 110Picked HOU 64%Hit
- Oct 31HOU 108 @ DAL 102Picked DAL 69%Miss
- Apr 7HOU 136 @ DAL 147Picked DAL 69%Hit
- Mar 31DAL 125 @ HOU 107Picked DAL 53%Hit
- Dec 22DAL 96 @ HOU 122Picked HOU 65%Hit
- Nov 28HOU 115 @ DAL 121Picked DAL 51%Hit