Houston Rockets at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints26
- Alperen SengunAssists9
- Alperen SengunRebounds10
Celtics- Baylor ScheiermanPoints17
- Jaylen BrownAssists5
- Josh MinottRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–101
- Q42.1shot clock turnover128–101
- Q426.5Hugo Gonzalez bad pass (Clint Capela steals)128–101
- Q436.4Clint Capela makes free throw 2 of 2128–101
- Q436.4Rockets offensive team rebound127–101
- Q436.4Clint Capela misses free throw 1 of 2127–101
- Q436.4Baylor Scheierman personal foul127–101
- Q437.5Jae'Sean Tate defensive rebound127–101
- Q439.2Jordan Walsh misses dunk127–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:05Amen Thompson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Okogie assists)HOU 10 – 7 BOS · HOU 63% → 69% +6HOU 63% → 69%+6 pts
- Q17:54Josh Okogie makes 22-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 15 – 9 BOS · HOU 69% → 75% +6HOU 69% → 75%+6 pts
- Q17:36Derrick White makes 23-foot three point jumper (Neemias Queta assists)HOU 15 – 12 BOS · BOS 25% → 31% +6BOS 25% → 31%+6 pts
- Q17:16Josh Okogie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 18 – 12 BOS · HOU 69% → 75% +6HOU 69% → 75%+6 pts
- Q13:47Anfernee Simons makes 25-foot three pointerHOU 26 – 22 BOS · BOS 24% → 29% +6BOS 24% → 29%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -4.5
- ML HOU -195 / BOS +165
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -2
- HOU 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 57.6%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- HOU -175
- BOS +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 115.5 – 111.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1629 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +52 | −76 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +53 Elo | HOU 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 59.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30127.8 | Points scored | 113.326th of 30 |
| 17th of 30117.5 | Points allowed | 107.32nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+10.3 | Margin | +6.07th of 30 |
| 1st of 30124.5 | Offense rating | 113.913th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.6 | Defense rating | 107.94th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.4 | Pace | 99.826th of 30 |
| 9th of 291–1 | Road vs home | 1–115th of 30 |
| 18th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 147425th of 30 |
| 11th of 301550 | Elo rating | 16292nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−76 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  HOU |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 47–42 | 44–49 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 32–28 | 43–45 |
| Underdog | 15–14 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders | 48–41 | 43–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 1–3 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.