Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints32
- Jaylen BrownAssists6
- Josh MinottRebounds8
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints26
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists14
- Kelly Oubre Jr.Rebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–108
- Q43.5Derrick White enters the game for Sam Hauser109–108
- Q43.5Tyrese Maxey enters the game for Adem Bona109–108
- Q43.576ers Full timeout109–108
- Q43.5Joel Embiid defensive rebound109–108
- Q43.8Josh Minott misses free throw 2 of 2109–108
- Q43.8Adem Bona enters the game for Tyrese Maxey109–108
- Q43.8Celtics offensive team rebound109–108
- Q43.8Josh Minott misses free throw 1 of 2109–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:07Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)BOS 75 – 72 PHI · BOS 52% → 62% +10BOS 52% → 62%+10 pts
- Q410:52Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)BOS 89 – 85 PHI · PHI 21% → 32% +11PHI 21% → 32%+11 pts
- Q49:46Sam Hauser makes 26-foot three point jumper (Hugo Gonzalez assists)BOS 92 – 85 PHI · BOS 69% → 80% +11BOS 69% → 80%+11 pts
- Q451.4VJ Edgecombe makes 27-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)BOS 108 – 106 PHI · PHI 2% → 21% +19PHI 2% → 21%+19 pts
- Q420.8Tyrese Maxey makes two point shotBOS 109 – 108 PHI · PHI 3% → 27% +24PHI 3% → 27%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -1.5
- ML BOS -125 / PHI +105
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -1
- BOS 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 53.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -114
- PHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 117.5 – 116.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1625 | 1421 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −76 | +67 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +25 Elo | BOS 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.2 | Points scored | 129.31st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.2 | Points allowed | 123.825th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+7.0 | Margin | +5.59th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.8 | Offense rating | 122.03rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30107.8 | Defense rating | 116.823rd of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.8 | Pace | 103.117th of 30 |
| 15th of 291–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
| 17th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 144328th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301625 | Elo rating | 142125th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−76 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  BOS |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–49 | 28–54 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 43–45 | 7–19 |
| Underdog | 1–4 | 21–35 |
| Overs–unders | 43–50 | 48–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 6–3 PHI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Oct 22PHI 117 @ BOS 116Picked BOS 63%Miss
- Mar 6PHI 105 @ BOS 123Picked BOS 87%Hit
- Feb 20BOS 124 @ PHI 104Picked BOS 69%Hit
- Feb 2BOS 118 @ PHI 110Picked BOS 83%Hit
- Dec 25PHI 118 @ BOS 114Picked BOS 78%Miss
- Feb 27PHI 99 @ BOS 117Picked BOS 79%Hit
- Dec 1PHI 119 @ BOS 125Picked BOS 68%Hit
- Nov 15BOS 117 @ PHI 107Picked PHI 55%Miss