Philadelphia 76ers at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints39
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists10
- Kelly Oubre Jr.Rebounds11
Wizards- Alex SarrPoints31
- Kyshawn GeorgeAssists7
- Alex SarrRebounds11
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game139–134
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime139–134
- OT0.1Wizards offensive team rebound139–134
- OT0.1Kyshawn George misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot139–134
- OT4.4Quentin Grimes makes free throw 2 of 2139–134
- OT4.4Quentin Grimes makes free throw 1 of 2138–134
- OT4.4Kyshawn George personal foul137–134
- OT4.4Khris Middleton bad pass (Quentin Grimes steals)137–134
- OT6.5Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2137–134
- OT6.5Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2136–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q438.7Quentin Grimes makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 126 – 126 WSH · PHI 10% → 52% +42PHI 10% → 52%+42 pts
- OT4:02Alex Sarr makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyshawn George assists)PHI 126 – 131 WSH · WSH 60% → 79% +19WSH 60% → 79%+19 pts
- OT56.2Tyrese Maxey makes 1-foot driving dunkPHI 130 – 131 WSH · PHI 14% → 37% +23PHI 14% → 37%+23 pts
- OT27.6Adem Bona makes dunkPHI 132 – 131 WSH · PHI 31% → 71% +41PHI 31% → 71%+41 pts
- OT18.7Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2PHI 133 – 131 WSH · PHI 75% → 91% +16PHI 75% → 91%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -4.5
- ML PHI -195 / WSH +165
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -1
- PHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.7%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- PHI -175
- WSH +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 122.0 – 117.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1415 | 1339 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +62 | +30 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +33 Elo | PHI 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30126.0 | Points scored | 116.719th of 30 |
| 20th of 30120.3 | Points allowed | 126.327th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+5.7 | Margin | −9.725th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30122.6 | Offense rating | 107.326th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.0 | Defense rating | 116.221st of 30 |
| 17th of 30102.8 | Pace | 108.72nd of 30 |
| 1st of 291–0 | Road vs home | 0–124th of 30 |
| 19th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 145128th of 30 |
| 26th of 301415 | Elo rating | 133930th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  PHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–54 | 35–47 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–19 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 21–35 | 35–44 |
| Overs–unders | 48–34 | 40–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 6–1 WSH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.