Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints38
- LaMelo BallAssists13
- LaMelo BallRebounds13
Wizards- CJ McCollumPoints24
- CJ McCollumAssists5
- Kyshawn GeorgeRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game139–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter139–113
- Q424.0Anthony Gill makes free throw 2 of 2139–113
- Q424.0Anthony Gill makes free throw 1 of 2139–112
- Q424.0Liam McNeeley shooting foul139–111
- Q432.6Mason Plumlee makes 1-foot dunk (Pat Connaughton assists)139–111
- Q446.0Anthony Gill out of bounds bad pass turnover137–111
- Q41:02Pat Connaughton makes 3-foot dunk (Liam McNeeley assists)137–111
- Q41:03Mason Plumlee defensive rebound135–111
- Q41:06Will Riley misses 6-foot two point shot135–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:39Tidjane Salaun makes 26-foot three point jumper (Moussa Diabate assists)CHA 82 – 82 WSH · CHA 37% → 48% +11CHA 37% → 48%+11 pts
- Q32:58LaMelo Ball makes 29-foot three point jumper (Tidjane Salaun assists)CHA 85 – 82 WSH · CHA 48% → 59% +11CHA 48% → 59%+11 pts
- Q31:56Sion James makes 25-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 90 – 86 WSH · CHA 52% → 63% +11CHA 52% → 63%+11 pts
- Q31:25Sion James makes 26-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 93 – 86 WSH · CHA 64% → 74% +10CHA 64% → 74%+10 pts
- Q47:52Miles Bridges makes 22-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 110 – 100 WSH · CHA 81% → 89% +9CHA 81% → 89%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wizards 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- WSH -1.5
- ML CHA +105 / WSH -125
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- WSH 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- WSH: Elo 50.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- WSH -114
- CHA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 119.5 – 121.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1358 | 1359 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +84 | +23 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | WSH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | WSH +4 Elo | WSH 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 52.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30105.1 | Points scored | 108.027th of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.2 | Points allowed | 120.429th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−9.1 | Margin | −12.430th of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.1 | Offense rating | 104.930th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 116.927th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.6 | Pace | 102.74th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 28th of 307–34 | Road vs home | 8–3230th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 30th of 301358 | Elo rating | 135929th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+84 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  CHA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–46 | 35–47 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–9 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 36–37 | 35–44 |
| Overs–unders | 33–49 | 40–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 2–6 WSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.
- Mar 1WSH 113 @ CHA 100Picked CHA 61%Miss
- Feb 3WSH 124 @ CHA 114Picked CHA 62%Miss
- Dec 26CHA 110 @ WSH 113Picked CHA 63%Miss
- Dec 19CHA 114 @ WSH 123Picked CHA 59%Miss
- Mar 8CHA 100 @ WSH 112Picked CHA 53%Miss
- Nov 22WSH 114 @ CHA 117Picked CHA 66%Hit
- Nov 10CHA 124 @ WSH 117Picked CHA 51%Hit
- Nov 8WSH 132 @ CHA 116Picked CHA 64%Miss