Cleveland Cavaliers at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints24
- Darius GarlandAssists9
- Jarrett AllenRebounds14
Wizards- CJ McCollumPoints25
- Bub CarringtonAssists11
- Justin ChampagnieRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game148–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter148–114
- Q40.0(00:00) [Cavaliers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)148–114
- Q40.2Anthony Gill makes 23-foot three point jumper (AJ Johnson assists)148–114
- Q415.0Nae'Qwan Tomlin makes 1-foot dunk (Luke Travers assists)148–111
- Q418.4Tristan Vukcevic lost ball turnover (Thomas Bryant steals)146–111
- Q421.5Wizards offensive team rebound146–111
- Q421.5Nae'Qwan Tomlin blocks Will Riley 's 6-foot driving layup146–111
- Q441.8Nae'Qwan Tomlin makes free throw 2 of 2146–111
- Q441.8Nae'Qwan Tomlin makes free throw 1 of 2145–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:25CJ McCollum makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotCLE 10 – 7 WSH · WSH 10% → 13% +3WSH 10% → 13%+3 pts
- Q18:04Bub Carrington makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (CJ McCollum assists)CLE 10 – 10 WSH · WSH 13% → 17% +4WSH 13% → 17%+4 pts
- Q17:40CJ McCollum makes 25-foot three point shot (Alex Sarr assists)CLE 10 – 13 WSH · WSH 17% → 21% +4WSH 17% → 21%+4 pts
- Q16:12Darius Garland makes 27-foot three point shot (Jaylon Tyson assists)CLE 19 – 13 WSH · CLE 87% → 90% +3CLE 87% → 90%+3 pts
- Q13:24Sam Merrill makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jarrett Allen assists)CLE 27 – 22 WSH · CLE 85% → 88% +4CLE 85% → 88%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -13.5
- ML CLE -800 / WSH +500
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -8.5
- CLE 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 79.9%, market 84.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -533
- WSH +533 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 127.5 – 114.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1591 | 1307 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +34 | +42 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +240 Elo | CLE 79.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 83.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 83.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 84.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30116.4 | Points scored | 111.925th of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.8 | Points allowed | 128.130th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.6 | Margin | −16.330th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 104.828th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 120.029th of 30 |
| 8th of 30104.0 | Pace | 105.33rd of 30 |
| 9th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 0–329th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 151013th of 30 |
| 4th of 301591 | Elo rating | 130730th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–6 | 1–7 |
| Last 10 | 2–6 | 1–7 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | — | 1–6 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 8–0 WSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 8.
- Feb 7CLE 134 @ WSH 124Picked CLE 93%Hit
- Dec 13WSH 105 @ CLE 115Picked CLE 91%Hit
- Dec 3WSH 87 @ CLE 118Picked CLE 90%Hit
- Oct 26CLE 135 @ WSH 116Picked CLE 79%Hit
- Feb 25CLE 114 @ WSH 105Picked CLE 80%Hit
- Feb 7CLE 114 @ WSH 106Picked CLE 80%Hit
- Jan 5WSH 90 @ CLE 114Picked CLE 76%Hit
- Jan 3WSH 101 @ CLE 140Picked CLE 72%Hit