Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints23
- Jalen JohnsonAssists5
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds13
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints37
- Donovan MitchellAssists5
- Evan MobleyRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–117
- Q47.4Jalen Johnson makes driving layup (Kristaps Porzingis assists)109–117
- Q416.5De'Andre Hunter makes free throw 2 of 2107–117
- Q416.5De'Andre Hunter makes free throw 1 of 2107–116
- Q416.5Kristaps Porzingis personal foul107–115
- Q416.7Dyson Daniels makes tip shot107–115
- Q416.8Dyson Daniels offensive rebound105–115
- Q417.2Dyson Daniels misses driving floating jump shot105–115
- Q421.2Hawks Full timeout105–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:20Luke Kennard makes 24-foot three point shot (Zaccharie Risacher assists)ATL 81 – 84 CLE · ATL 18% → 29% +11ATL 18% → 29%+11 pts
- Q46:24De'Andre Hunter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dean Wade assists)ATL 88 – 93 CLE · CLE 68% → 81% +14CLE 68% → 81%+14 pts
- Q44:37Kristaps Porzingis makes 14-foot two point shotATL 94 – 96 CLE · ATL 21% → 32% +11ATL 21% → 32%+11 pts
- Q44:28Evan Mobley makes 1-foot dunk (Lonzo Ball assists)ATL 94 – 98 CLE · CLE 69% → 80% +11CLE 69% → 80%+11 pts
- Q43:44Jaylon Tyson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)ATL 96 – 103 CLE · CLE 81% → 92% +11CLE 81% → 92%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -6.5
- ML ATL +200 / CLE -240
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -2
- CLE 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 58.7%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- CLE -212
- ATL +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 112.0 – 118.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1580 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +17 | −58 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +61 Elo | CLE 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 63.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 113.724th of 30 |
| 18th of 30118.3 | Points allowed | 114.710th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.2 | Margin | −1.017th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.0 | Offense rating | 109.926th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 110.910th of 30 |
| 13th of 30103.5 | Pace | 103.414th of 30 |
| 6th of 293–1 | Road vs home | 1–115th of 30 |
| 12th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 150513th of 30 |
| 21st of 301481 | Elo rating | 15805th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–4 | 1–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 1–5 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | — |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 2–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 3–4 CLE in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.