Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints22
- Jalen JohnsonAssists8
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds13
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints18
- Pascal SiakamAssists5
- Isaiah JacksonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–108
- Q420.5RayJ Dennis makes 32-foot three pointer128–108
- Q425.4N'Faly Dante makes 1-foot dunk (Keaton Wallace assists)128–105
- Q429.1Taelon Peter bad pass (N'Faly Dante steals)126–105
- Q440.4RayJ Dennis defensive rebound126–105
- Q444.4Asa Newell misses 27-foot three point jumper126–105
- Q455.4Jay Huff makes free throw 2 of 2126–105
- Q455.4Jay Huff makes free throw 1 of 2126–104
- Q455.4N'Faly Dante shooting foul126–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q157.8Onyeka Okongwu makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)ATL 29 – 27 IND · ATL 52% → 59% +7ATL 52% → 59%+7 pts
- Q25:10Pascal Siakam makes 28-foot three point jumper (Aaron Nesmith assists)ATL 49 – 49 IND · IND 38% → 46% +8IND 38% → 46%+8 pts
- Q22:23Kristaps Porzingis makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 58 – 53 IND · ATL 59% → 67% +8ATL 59% → 67%+8 pts
- Q21:56Aaron Nesmith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)ATL 58 – 56 IND · IND 33% → 41% +8IND 33% → 41%+8 pts
- Q255.8Jarace Walker makes 26-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)ATL 61 – 59 IND · IND 32% → 41% +8IND 32% → 41%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -2.5
- ML ATL -135 / IND +115
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -1
- ATL 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 45.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -124
- IND +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 117.5 – 115.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +2 | −85 | ATL: Usual rotation · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | IND crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +34 Elo | IND 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30113.8 | Points scored | 113.325th of 30 |
| 20th of 30120.4 | Points allowed | 122.522nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−6.6 | Margin | −9.326th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30109.8 | Offense rating | 103.328th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.1 | Defense rating | 111.713th of 30 |
| 16th of 30103.3 | Pace | 104.011th of 30 |
| 6th of 292–1 | Road vs home | 0–125th of 30 |
| 14th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15505th of 30 |
| 21st of 301462 | Elo rating | 15598th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−85 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  ATL |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–41 | 50–55 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–19 | 25–34 |
| Underdog | 28–22 | 25–21 |
| Overs–unders | 50–32 | 56–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 2–5 IND in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.