Atlanta Hawks at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints23
- Kristaps PorzingisAssists7
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds14
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points32
- Terance MannAssists6
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–112
- Q43.8Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound117–112
- Q48.2Cam Thomas misses 25-foot three point shot117–112
- Q410.4Tyrese Martin offensive rebound117–112
- Q413.6Michael Porter Jr. misses 23-foot three point jumper117–112
- Q415.4Mouhamed Gueye enters the game for Luke Kennard117–112
- Q415.4Nets offensive team rebound117–112
- Q415.4Nickeil Alexander-Walker blocks Cam Thomas 's 1-foot driving layup117–112
- Q426.2Luke Kennard makes free throw 2 of 2117–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:21Cam Thomas makes 25-foot three pointerATL 0 – 7 BKN · BKN 35% → 41% +6BKN 35% → 41%+6 pts
- Q18:17Michael Porter Jr. makes 26-foot three pointerATL 4 – 15 BKN · BKN 44% → 50% +6BKN 44% → 50%+6 pts
- Q39:03Michael Porter Jr. makes 27-foot running pullup jump shotATL 70 – 64 BKN · BKN 13% → 19% +6BKN 13% → 19%+6 pts
- Q350.2Luke Kennard makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Keaton Wallace assists)ATL 94 – 83 BKN · ATL 87% → 92% +5ATL 87% → 92%+5 pts
- Q41:28Michael Porter Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2ATL 115 – 112 BKN · BKN 10% → 16% +6BKN 10% → 16%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -8.5
- ML ATL -320 / BKN +260
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -2.5
- ATL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 60.0%, market 73.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -274
- BKN +274 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 124.0 – 115.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1361 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +44 | +34 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | ATL crossed 1 time zone and BKN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +70 Elo | ATL 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 73.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 72.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 73.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 114.321st of 30 |
| 20th of 30122.5 | Points allowed | 130.530th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−9.5 | Margin | −16.330th of 30 |
| 26th of 30107.8 | Offense rating | 113.213th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.9 | Defense rating | 129.330th of 30 |
| 12th of 30104.2 | Pace | 101.321st of 30 |
| 6th of 291–1 | Road vs home | 0–125th of 30 |
| 11th of 301523 | Opponent Elo | 149915th of 30 |
| 21st of 301457 | Elo rating | 136129th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  ATL |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–41 | 43–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 13–19 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 28–22 | 38–32 |
| Overs–unders | 50–32 | 38–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 3–4 BKN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.