Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Alex SarrPoints31
- Bub CarringtonAssists6
- Alex SarrRebounds8
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints35
- Derrick WhiteAssists8
- Neemias QuetaRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–136
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–136
- Q412.5shot clock turnover107–136
- Q428.9Tre Johnson personal foul107–136
- Q436.5Tre Johnson makes 15-foot pullup jump shot107–136
- Q446.3AJ Johnson defensive rebound105–136
- Q449.5Sam Hauser misses 30-foot three point jumper105–136
- Q458.5Will Riley makes driving layup (AJ Johnson assists)105–136
- Q41:20Anfernee Simons makes 20-foot two point shot103–136
- Q41:35Malaki Branham makes free throw 2 of 2103–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:30Josh Minott makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jordan Walsh assists)WSH 32 – 23 BOS · BOS 59% → 66% +7BOS 59% → 66%+7 pts
- Q154.8Josh Minott makes 27-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)WSH 32 – 26 BOS · BOS 65% → 71% +6BOS 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q17.5Bub Carrington makes 30-foot three pointerWSH 37 – 26 BOS · WSH 33% → 40% +7WSH 33% → 40%+7 pts
- Q210:08Payton Pritchard makes 30-foot three pointer (Neemias Queta assists)WSH 39 – 35 BOS · BOS 68% → 74% +6BOS 68% → 74%+6 pts
- Q29:15Derrick White makes 25-foot three pointer (Neemias Queta assists)WSH 39 – 38 BOS · BOS 73% → 79% +6BOS 73% → 79%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -13.5
- ML WSH +550 / BOS -900
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -9.5
- BOS 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 82.5%, market 85.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -585
- WSH +585 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 109.5 – 123.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1313 | 1603 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −24 | −80 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +270 Elo | BOS 82.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 82.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 82.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 85.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30112.6 | Points scored | 110.528th of 30 |
| 30th of 30127.0 | Points allowed | 109.63rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−14.4 | Margin | +0.916th of 30 |
| 29th of 30104.3 | Offense rating | 111.123rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.7 | Defense rating | 110.38th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.3 | Pace | 99.626th of 30 |
| 19th of 301–3 | Road vs home | 1–327th of 30 |
| 20th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 148325th of 30 |
| 30th of 301313 | Elo rating | 16032nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−80 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 1–6 | 2–6 |
| Last 10 | 1–6 | 2–6 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 1–5 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 3–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–8 BOS in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- Apr 6WSH 90 @ BOS 124Picked BOS 93%Hit
- Dec 15BOS 112 @ WSH 98Picked BOS 91%Hit
- Nov 22BOS 108 @ WSH 96Picked BOS 90%Hit
- Oct 24BOS 122 @ WSH 102Picked BOS 87%Hit
- Apr 14WSH 122 @ BOS 132Picked BOS 76%Hit
- Mar 17BOS 130 @ WSH 104Picked BOS 79%Hit
- Feb 9WSH 129 @ BOS 133Picked BOS 85%Hit
- Oct 30BOS 126 @ WSH 107Picked WSH 50%Miss