Utah Jazz at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints31
- Walter Clayton Jr.Assists6
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds11
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints36
- Derrick WhiteAssists6
- Neemias QuetaRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–103
- Q40.0(00:00) [Jazz] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)105–103
- Q40.6Jusuf Nurkic enters the game for Elijah Harkless105–103
- Q40.6Walter Clayton Jr. enters the game for Taylor Hendricks105–103
- Q40.6Neemias Queta enters the game for Anfernee Simons105–103
- Q40.6Jazz Full timeout105–103
- Q40.6(00:00.6) [Celtics] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Celtics] charged with a timeout105–103
- Q40.6Celtics Full timeout105–103
- Q40.6Jaylen Brown turnover105–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:54Derrick White makes 26-foot three pointer (Payton Pritchard assists)UTAH 98 – 99 BOS · BOS 36% → 67% +31BOS 36% → 67%+31 pts
- Q41:24Jaylen Brown makes 8-foot pullup jump shot (Derrick White assists)UTAH 99 – 101 BOS · BOS 56% → 77% +22BOS 56% → 77%+22 pts
- Q444.4Lauri Markkanen makes 4-foot layup (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)UTAH 103 – 102 BOS · UTAH 30% → 62% +32UTAH 30% → 62%+32 pts
- Q424.8Neemias Queta makes free throw 1 of 2UTAH 103 – 103 BOS · BOS 31% → 53% +22BOS 31% → 53%+22 pts
- Q40.6Jusuf Nurkic makes 1-foot two point shotUTAH 105 – 103 BOS · UTAH 50% → >99% +50UTAH 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -10.5
- ML UTAH +380 / BOS -550
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -8.5
- BOS 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 80.3%, market 80.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -406
- UTAH +406 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 111.5 – 122.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1375 | 1612 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −17 | −86 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +244 Elo | BOS 80.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 82.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 82.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 80.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 111.627th of 30 |
| 26th of 30121.2 | Points allowed | 110.33rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.8 | Margin | +1.314th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 112.019th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.6 | Defense rating | 110.78th of 30 |
| 19th of 30102.0 | Pace | 99.826th of 30 |
| 23rd of 290–3 | Road vs home | 1–222nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301476 | Opponent Elo | 149519th of 30 |
| 26th of 301375 | Elo rating | 16122nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−86 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–2 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 0–4 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.