Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Jrue HolidayPoints27
- Jrue HolidayAssists8
- Deni AvdijaRebounds9
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints32
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists8
- Walker KesslerRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game136–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter136–134
- Q41.5Jrue Holiday defensive rebound136–134
- Q43.9Kyle Filipowski misses free throw 2 of 2136–134
- Q43.9Donovan Clingan enters the game for Shaedon Sharpe136–134
- Q43.9Jusuf Nurkic enters the game for Cody Williams136–134
- Q43.9Walker Kessler enters the game for Elijah Harkless136–134
- Q43.9Kyle Filipowski makes free throw 1 of 2136–134
- Q43.9Jrue Holiday personal take foul136–133
- Q45.9Cody Williams enters the game for Jusuf Nurkic136–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:10Duop Reath makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)POR 71 – 67 UTAH · POR 59% → 67% +8POR 59% → 67%+8 pts
- Q49.3Lauri Markkanen makes free throw 2 of 2POR 132 – 131 UTAH · UTAH 3% → 18% +14UTAH 3% → 18%+14 pts
- Q48.2Jrue Holiday makes free throw 1 of 2POR 133 – 131 UTAH · POR 84% → 98% +14POR 84% → 98%+14 pts
- Q47.7Keyonte George makes free throw 2 of 2POR 134 – 133 UTAH · UTAH 2% → 15% +13UTAH 2% → 15%+13 pts
- Q45.9Jrue Holiday makes free throw 1 of 2POR 135 – 133 UTAH · POR 88% → 99% +11POR 88% → 99%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- POR -3.5
- ML POR -150 / UTAH +130
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -2.5
- POR 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- POR: Elo 59.4%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- POR -138
- UTAH +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 119.5 – 116.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +56 | +25 | POR: Missing Damian Lillard −42 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | POR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | POR +66 Elo | POR 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 60.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30120.5 | Points scored | 123.76th of 30 |
| 8th of 30114.8 | Points allowed | 115.712th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+5.8 | Margin | +8.06th of 30 |
| 17th of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 119.66th of 30 |
| 4th of 30106.2 | Defense rating | 111.812th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30108.2 | Pace | 100.025th of 30 |
| 7th of 291–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301560 | Opponent Elo | 149021st of 30 |
| 17th of 301501 | Elo rating | 141926th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+56 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles tendon−42 Elo
Jazz
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  POR |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 46–36 | 41–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–6 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 38–30 | 40–38 |
| Overs–unders | 41–41 | 48–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 3–5 UTAH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.
- Apr 9POR 126 @ UTAH 133Picked POR 69%Miss
- Feb 24POR 114 @ UTAH 112Picked POR 72%Hit
- Dec 26UTAH 120 @ POR 122Picked POR 59%Hit
- Dec 6UTAH 141 @ POR 99Picked POR 61%Miss
- Dec 14UTAH 122 @ POR 114Picked POR 58%Miss
- Dec 2POR 113 @ UTAH 118Picked UTAH 53%Hit
- Nov 22UTAH 105 @ POR 121Picked UTAH 56%Miss
- Nov 14POR 99 @ UTAH 115Picked UTAH 60%Hit