Utah Jazz at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints29
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists7
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds9
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints29
- Collin SextonAssists12
- Moussa DiabateRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–126
- Q417.3Kyle Anderson makes 4-foot two point shot103–126
- Q428.3Liam McNeeley turnover101–126
- Q428.3Liam McNeeley offensive foul101–126
- Q445.2Mason Plumlee defensive goaltending violation101–126
- Q445.2Kyle Anderson makes two point shot (Kyle Filipowski assists)101–126
- Q448.6KJ Simpson lost ball turnover (Kyle Anderson steals)99–126
- Q452.4KJ Simpson defensive rebound99–126
- Q455.6Kyle Anderson misses layup99–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:07Lauri Markkanen makes 28-foot three point jumper (Svi Mykhailiuk assists)UTAH 7 – 9 CHA · UTAH 43% → 50% +6UTAH 43% → 50%+6 pts
- Q17:55Sion James makes 25-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)UTAH 9 – 12 CHA · CHA 46% → 52% +7CHA 46% → 52%+7 pts
- Q16:21Lauri Markkanen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kevin Love assists)UTAH 16 – 15 CHA · UTAH 50% → 56% +7UTAH 50% → 56%+7 pts
- Q14:23Miles Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Liam McNeeley assists)UTAH 19 – 27 CHA · CHA 57% → 64% +7CHA 57% → 64%+7 pts
- Q13:34Miles Bridges makes 22-foot three point jumper (KJ Simpson assists)UTAH 21 – 30 CHA · CHA 60% → 66% +6CHA 60% → 66%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jazz 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH -1.5
- ML UTAH -130 / CHA +110
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -1.5
- UTAH 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- UTAH: Elo 56.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -119
- CHA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 117.0 – 115.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1397 | 1331 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +12 | +11 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | UTAH crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +46 Elo | UTAH 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 54.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30120.2 | Points scored | 120.89th of 30 |
| 21st of 30120.2 | Points allowed | 124.027th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | −3.222nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.1 | Offense rating | 115.69th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 118.628th of 30 |
| 18th of 30102.1 | Pace | 104.66th of 30 |
| 23rd of 290–2 | Road vs home | 1–220th of 30 |
| 17th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 144729th of 30 |
| 26th of 301397 | Elo rating | 133129th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–1 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–1 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 1–3 CHA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.