Orlando Magic at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints21
- Paolo BancheroAssists9
- Paolo BancheroRebounds9
Hornets- Collin SextonPoints19
- LaMelo BallAssists13
- LaMelo BallRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–107
- Q413.2Liam McNeeley defensive rebound123–107
- Q416.5Tristan da Silva misses 12-foot two point shot123–107
- Q425.8Collin Sexton personal foul123–107
- Q445.6Liam McNeeley makes free throw 2 of 2123–107
- Q445.6Liam McNeeley makes free throw 1 of 2123–106
- Q445.6Orlando Robinson shooting foul123–105
- Q454.2Tristan da Silva makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jase Richardson assists)123–105
- Q41:04Collin Sexton makes 25-foot three point shot (Liam McNeeley assists)120–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:12Tristan da Silva makes 23-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)ORL 43 – 35 CHA · ORL 70% → 76% +6ORL 70% → 76%+6 pts
- Q34:52Wendell Carter Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)ORL 86 – 78 CHA · ORL 72% → 80% +8ORL 72% → 80%+8 pts
- Q33:59Collin Sexton makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (LaMelo Ball assists)ORL 88 – 81 CHA · CHA 15% → 22% +7CHA 15% → 22%+7 pts
- Q31:40Miles Bridges makes 5-foot two point shotORL 88 – 85 CHA · CHA 27% → 33% +7CHA 27% → 33%+7 pts
- Q411:16Franz Wagner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)ORL 95 – 85 CHA · ORL 81% → 88% +8ORL 81% → 88%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -3.5
- ML ORL -165 / CHA +140
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -1.5
- ORL 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −16.5 pts
- ORL: Elo 43.4%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- ORL -149
- CHA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 121.0 – 117.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1361 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +32 | +97 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +46 Elo | CHA 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 54.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30114.0 | Points scored | 128.33rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30122.6 | Points allowed | 124.826th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−8.6 | Margin | +3.513th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.4 | Offense rating | 119.57th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.6 | Defense rating | 116.222nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30104.8 | Pace | 107.45th of 30 |
| 21st of 290–2 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
| 15th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 140829th of 30 |
| 21st of 301455 | Elo rating | 136128th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+97 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  ORL |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–43 | 36–46 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 27–20 | 0–9 |
| Underdog | 17–23 | 36–37 |
| Overs–unders | 38–49 | 33–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 7–1 CHA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- Mar 25ORL 111 @ CHA 104Picked ORL 60%Hit
- Feb 12CHA 86 @ ORL 102Picked ORL 85%Hit
- Nov 25ORL 95 @ CHA 84Picked ORL 63%Hit
- Nov 12CHA 89 @ ORL 114Picked ORL 73%Hit
- Apr 5ORL 115 @ CHA 124Picked ORL 71%Miss
- Mar 19CHA 92 @ ORL 112Picked ORL 75%Hit
- Mar 5ORL 101 @ CHA 89Picked ORL 66%Hit
- Nov 26CHA 117 @ ORL 130Picked ORL 67%Hit