Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints20
- LaMelo BallAssists9
- LaMelo BallRebounds8
Heat- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Points28
- Davion MitchellAssists9
- Kel'el WareRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–144
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–144
- Q411.0Keshad Johnson makes 18-foot pullup jump shot117–144
- Q424.8Tidjane Salaun makes free throw 2 of 2117–142
- Q424.8Tidjane Salaun makes free throw 1 of 2116–142
- Q424.8Myron Gardner loose ball foul115–142
- Q424.8Hornets defensive team rebound115–142
- Q428.3Kel'el Ware misses 24-foot three point jumper115–142
- Q435.2Myron Gardner defensive rebound115–142
- Q438.7Tre Mann misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot115–142
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:48Sion James makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tre Mann assists)CHA 57 – 57 MIA · CHA 33% → 41% +8CHA 33% → 41%+8 pts
- Q24:36Andrew Wiggins makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotCHA 57 – 60 MIA · MIA 59% → 67% +8MIA 59% → 67%+8 pts
- Q24:03Pelle Larsson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)CHA 57 – 63 MIA · MIA 66% → 74% +7MIA 66% → 74%+7 pts
- Q35:50Miles Bridges makes 22-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 81 – 84 MIA · CHA 25% → 33% +9CHA 25% → 33%+9 pts
- Q35:33Bam Adebayo makes 23-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)CHA 81 – 87 MIA · MIA 67% → 76% +9MIA 67% → 76%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -4.5
- ML CHA +150 / MIA -175
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -1.5
- MIA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- MIA: Elo 56.6%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- MIA -159
- CHA +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 118.0 – 122.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1378 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +105 | −14 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Norman Powell −23 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +46 Elo | MIA 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 56.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30132.0 | Points scored | 127.34th of 30 |
| 17th of 30118.3 | Points allowed | 115.310th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+13.7 | Margin | +12.03rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30123.4 | Offense rating | 115.710th of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 104.83rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30107.0 | Pace | 109.61st of 30 |
| 7th of 291–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
| 30th of 301372 | Opponent Elo | 151611th of 30 |
| 27th of 301378 | Elo rating | 150615th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+105 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
−14 Elo- Norman Powell sore right groin−23 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  CHA |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–46 | 39–47 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–9 | 21–24 |
| Underdog | 36–37 | 18–23 |
| Overs–unders | 33–49 | 47–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 1–7 MIA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Mar 23CHA 105 @ MIA 122Picked MIA 71%Hit
- Mar 10CHA 105 @ MIA 102Picked MIA 77%Miss
- Nov 27MIA 98 @ CHA 94Picked MIA 60%Hit
- Oct 26MIA 114 @ CHA 106Picked MIA 69%Hit
- Jan 14CHA 87 @ MIA 104Picked MIA 72%Hit
- Dec 13CHA 104 @ MIA 115Picked MIA 70%Hit
- Dec 11MIA 116 @ CHA 114Picked MIA 57%Hit
- Nov 14MIA 111 @ CHA 105Picked CHA 52%Miss