New York Knicks at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints37
- Jalen BrunsonAssists7
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds18
Heat- Norman PowellPoints29
- Davion MitchellAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–115
- Q415.8Karl-Anthony Towns makes 1-foot driving dunk (Jalen Brunson assists)107–115
- Q419.0Davion Mitchell personal foul105–115
- Q422.1Bam Adebayo makes dunk (Nikola Jovic assists)105–115
- Q425.2Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound105–113
- Q426.9Jalen Brunson misses driving layup105–113
- Q431.6Davion Mitchell lost ball turnover (Jalen Brunson steals)105–113
- Q445.6Josh Hart turnover105–113
- Q445.6Josh Hart offensive foul105–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:00OG Anunoby makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 69 – 69 MIA · NY 45% → 55% +10NY 45% → 55%+10 pts
- Q37:13Jalen Brunson makes 27-foot running pullup jump shotNY 72 – 69 MIA · NY 55% → 64% +10NY 55% → 64%+10 pts
- Q36:59Kel'el Ware makes 25-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)NY 72 – 72 MIA · MIA 36% → 46% +10MIA 36% → 46%+10 pts
- Q31:43OG Anunoby makes 26-foot three pointerNY 81 – 82 MIA · NY 38% → 50% +11NY 38% → 50%+11 pts
- Q356.1Nikola Jovic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)NY 81 – 86 MIA · MIA 54% → 66% +12MIA 54% → 66%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- NY -2.5
- ML NY -145 / MIA +125
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -1.5
- NY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- NY: Elo 55.3%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- NY -133
- MIA +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 116.5 – 114.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1581 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −21 | +3 | NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | MIA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +37 Elo | NY 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 62.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 110.624th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 110.07th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.1 | Margin | +0.615th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.4 | Offense rating | 112.121st of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 111.512th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.4 | Pace | 97.430th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 19–2222nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149524th of 30 |
| 5th of 301581 | Elo rating | 149618th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  NY |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 50–50 | 39–47 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 38–35 | 21–24 |
| Underdog | 12–15 | 18–23 |
| Overs–unders | 51–49 | 47–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 5–1 MIA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.